Brewery, Winery and Distillery Feasibility Study

California, then a close-packed group

California's 427 loans and $355.6 million put it far ahead of every other state; Texas, next by dollars, has $142.6 million. California also has the most 504 loans, 58 beside 369 7(a) loans, and a $350,000 median. Behind it, New York, Ohio, Minnesota and Pennsylvania are bunched between 202 and 251 loans and between $98.1 million and $109.9 million, and Pennsylvania, with the fewest loans of that group, has the most dollars. The depth of the California book means a lender there can set a new winery, brewery or distillery request against many state files. In the states behind it the comparison set is still substantial, but each has its own loan size, from New York's $161,000 median to Minnesota's $261,350, and the study should benchmark the request against its own state's row rather than a national figure.

Ranked by dollars, the order changes

Sort by dollars and the table reorders. Texas rises to second with $142.6 million on 160 loans. North Carolina's 140 loans carry $106.8 million, more than New York's 251 at $105.4 million, and Georgia's 87 loans carry $77.4 million, more than Washington's 162 ($75.2 million) or Michigan's 146 ($72.3 million). The medians explain it. South Carolina ($530,000), Georgia ($522,000), Arizona ($500,000), Colorado ($487,350), North Carolina and Tennessee ($480,500), Florida ($464,500) and Texas ($460,000) all sit far above the class's 7(a) median of $250,000, while New Hampshire ($110,000), Vermont ($152,000), New York ($161,000), Idaho ($167,700), Ohio ($169,000) and Maine ($175,200) sit well below it. A typical request in the first group is large enough to carry real estate or a ground-up plant, and the lender will want a construction budget and a full market case; in the second group the typical loan is closer to equipment, a new line or working capital, and the operating history carries more weight than the projection.

How the program split differs by state

The 504 count does not follow the state rank. Wisconsin has 41 504 loans, second only to California, among 161 loans in all; Minnesota has 35, Florida 32, and Indiana 30, as many as Pennsylvania's 30 on 96 loans against Pennsylvania's 202. At the other end, Georgia's 87 loans include 4 504 loans, Oregon's 111 include 9, New Jersey's 92 include 11 and Colorado's 108 include 13. Where 504 is common, the lender is weighing a loan secured by a production building, and as this page explains, what such a building fetches once it is fitted for brewing or distilling is hard to know; the study should value the plant on what a buyer from outside the industry would pay. Where 504 is rare, as in Georgia and Oregon, the study goes mostly to 7(a) lenders, and its weight shifts to cash flow and the sales channels behind it.

Where approvals fail to fund

Cancellation floors range widely. Florida and South Carolina share the highest, 19.4%, followed by Colorado (16.3%), Illinois (15.3%), Virginia (15.0%) and Arizona (14.7%), all above the national 504 floor of 14.4%. The lowest measured floors are Maryland's 4.8%, Texas's 5.7%, Maine's 5.8%, Washington's 6.0% and Connecticut's 6.3%. Florida stands out: it has more 504 loans (32) than New York (29) and the highest cancellation floor, in line with this page's point that property-side projects have more conditions to meet before funding. For a project in Florida, Colorado, Illinois or Virginia the study should be written as much for the closing as for the credit decision: a firm budget, contractor pricing, the permit sequence and the equipment delivery schedule, so that the lender can see the project funding at the approved amount.

Where loans were charged off

Charge-off floors rank the states differently. Missouri's 8.8% is the highest, then Illinois (8.6%), Georgia (8.5%), Indiana (7.1%), Michigan (6.7%), Massachusetts (6.2%) and California (5.2%), all above the national 7(a) floor of 3.9%, although the state figures pool both programs. Washington, Oregon, New Jersey and Vermont show 0.00%, a floor with no recorded charge-off as of the data date rather than a promise of none, and Pennsylvania shows 0.94%. The measures do not track each other. Missouri cancelled only 7.9% but charged off 8.8%; Colorado cancelled 16.3% and charged off 1.8%; Illinois is high on both. In Colorado the lender's question is whether the project will close; in Missouri and Indiana it is whether the business performs once funded; in Illinois it is both, and the emphasis of the study should follow the state's own record.

States the floors cannot reach

The rate columns go quiet wherever a state's cohort is under 30 loans. Kentucky (39 loans), New Mexico (36), Idaho (31), Tennessee (28), Rhode Island and Utah (26 each) carry medians but no cancellation or charge-off floor, while Maryland, Oklahoma, Arizona and South Carolina show a cancellation figure with the charge-off cell unreported. From Iowa's 23 loans down to Hawaii's 2, no median is printed either. Some of these small books are large in dollars: Alaska's 18 loans total $23.5 million, more than Maine's 55 at $16.7 million, while West Virginia's 10 total $1.1 million. None of those blanks means zero, and a study in these states draws its risk evidence from the class's national floors, the nearest metro with a record and the industry counts in the Census table, and says plainly which of those it relies on.

The Huntington National Bank and Live Oak Banking Company

The Huntington National Bank and Live Oak Banking Company hold far larger books than the rest. The Huntington National Bank has the most loans, 203, for $56.5 million; Live Oak Banking Company has 198 loans for $250.7 million, a dollar total larger than any state's except California's $355.6 million. They are also the only lenders in the table with a printed charge-off floor: 5.7% for The Huntington National Bank and 4.1% for Live Oak Banking Company, both above the class's national 7(a) floor of 3.9%. The books describe different lending businesses: one reaches many producers with modest loans, the other writes loans large enough for plant construction or an acquisition. A study going to either lender should expect its assumptions to be set against a beverage book of 203 or 198 loans, and should be written at the depth that book implies.

Small-ticket books

Further down, many books are small in dollars. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company has 164 loans for $33.8 million; KeyBank National Association 61 for $23.8 million; Wells Fargo Bank National Association 61 for $25.3 million; Columbia Bank (OR) 60 for $16.3 million; Banner Bank 38 for $8.3 million; TD Bank, National Association 34 for $4.4 million; Northeast Bank (ME) 29 for $6.0 million; Five Star Bank (NY) 27 for $3.8 million; Eastern Bank 26 for $3.1 million. These sizes match the small medians the state and metro tables show for New York ($161,000), Maine ($175,200), Rochester ($100,000) and Portland-South Portland ($137,500). A request at one of these lenders is most likely an expansion, an equipment line or the purchase of an operating producer, and the study earns its place with a clear reading of the operating record, distribution agreements and on-site sales rather than a long construction analysis.

Fewer files, larger loans

Other lenders write fewer, larger loans. TowneBank has 81 loans for $59.5 million, and WBD, Inc. 38 for $39.8 million, the largest dollar book after Live Oak Banking Company, TowneBank and The Huntington National Bank. Celtic Bank Corporation's 38 loans total $36.9 million, against Banner Bank's $8.3 million on the same count. Byline Bank's 25 loans total $28.3 million, more than Fifth Third Bank's 31 ($22.1 million) or First Commonwealth Bank's 30 ($22.4 million), and United Community Bank (SC) has 26 for $19.5 million. Several names are development or finance corporations rather than banks: Florida First Capital Finance Corporation, Inc. (29 loans, $30.2 million), Empire State Certified Development Corporation (40, $37.2 million), Granite State Economic Development Corporation (42, $29.7 million) and CDC Small Business Finance Corp. (32, $21.5 million). A study for these lenders carries the whole project: the site, the cost, the market and the value of the property outside the beverage use.

Withheld floors, and what to bring instead

Outside The Huntington National Bank and Live Oak Banking Company, every rate in the table is either withheld or not reported because the lender's cohort holds fewer than 30 loans. Newtek Bank, National Association (66 loans), JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (44) and Empire State Certified Development Corporation (40) have enough loans to appear but too few in the measured cohort for a rate. Withheld is not zero, and nothing on this page tells a borrower how any other lender's beverage loans performed. The lender knows, because it holds its own files. The study should therefore be built on the expectation that the lender will place the projection beside its own producer loans, and should show its assumptions for volume, price, distribution share and inventory in a form that allows the comparison line by line.

More producers, fewer SBA loans

County Business Patterns counts 11,127 establishments in the class's industries in 2023, up from 8,695 in 2018, with employment rising from 146,666 to 190,302 and a 2023 payroll of $10.11 billion. Over the same span, SBA 7(a) approvals to the class fell from 450 in FY2018 to 298 in FY2023. The industry grew while SBA lending to it contracted. For a borrower that cuts both ways. A falling SBA count is not evidence of a shrinking market; and a rising establishment count means more producers competing for the same taps, shelves and visitors. A lender will ask how many of those newer producers sell into the subject's market, and the study answers with the trade area's own producers, not the national total.

California, Washington and Oregon

California dominates the Census table as it dominates the loan table: 2,365 establishments, 47,122 employees and $3.36 billion in payroll in 2023, against 427 SBA loans. Washington is second by establishments with 701 and Oregon has 520, yet they carry 162 and 111 SBA loans, fewer than Ohio's 219 or Minnesota's 208, states with 323 and 201 establishments. Oregon's establishments rose from 446 to 520 while its employment barely moved, from 6,127 to 6,180, which suggests more and smaller producers sharing a flat workforce. Both states show a 0.00% charge-off floor. In the Pacific Northwest the competitive analysis is the heavy part of the study: a new producer enters a market crowded with small competitors, and the lender wants to see exactly where the subject's volume will come from.

Kentucky, Tennessee and Missouri: large industries, thin SBA books

Kentucky's 147 establishments employed 7,815 people in 2023, up from 4,269 in 2018, with a $562.6 million payroll, the largest of any state after California and above Texas's $476.2 million. The SBA record there holds 39 loans and $32.9 million, with cohorts too small for a cancellation or charge-off floor. Tennessee shows the same gap: 205 establishments, 5,679 employees (2,674 in 2018) and $310.0 million in payroll against 28 SBA loans. Missouri's $319.7 million payroll stands beside 68 SBA loans and the highest state charge-off floor on the page, 8.8%. In these states the Census table shows a large industry, but a lender has few SBA files of the class to compare. The study fills that gap from the market: the subject's position among the state's producers, its wage and input costs set against the Census payroll, and its sales channels.

Where SBA loans approach the establishment count

Some states show SBA lending close to the size of the industry itself. Minnesota's 208 loans from FY2017 to FY2026 exceed its 201 establishments in 2023; Ohio has 219 loans against 323 establishments, Wisconsin 161 against 215, Vermont 68 against 83 and Massachusetts 120 against 171. Loans are not establishments: one producer can borrow more than once, and a loan can fund a start-up Census had not yet counted. Still, where loans run this close to the number of producers, lenders have likely financed a large part of the local industry and will judge a new request against borrowers they already hold. Michigan and Wisconsin show the contrast plainly: both report a $202.2 million payroll, but Michigan's 318 establishments stand beside 146 SBA loans and 17 504 loans, Wisconsin's 215 beside 161 and 41.

Fast-growing workforces in Texas and the Southeast

Employment rose sharply in several states where SBA loans also run large. Texas went from 382 to 558 establishments and from 5,760 to 8,768 employees, with a $476.2 million payroll and a $460,000 median SBA loan. North Carolina went from 4,130 to 6,556 employees, Georgia from 84 to 179 establishments and South Carolina from 488 to 1,277 employees, and their SBA medians are $480,500, $522,000 and $530,000. South Carolina also carries the highest cancellation floor, 19.4%, shared with Florida, whose employment rose from 3,365 to 4,640. A growing workforce supports the demand side of a projection, but it also signals new capacity arriving, and a lender reading a large request in these states will ask whether the market absorbs the subject's output on top of the producers Census has already added. The study answers with the trade area's producers and their output, not with the state's growth alone.

What the Census table cannot show

Census does not publish every cell. Mississippi and North Dakota are not summed in either year, and Delaware, Nevada, Oklahoma and Rhode Island lack a 2018 total, so their growth cannot be read from this table. County Business Patterns also leaves out most self-employed activity, so the smallest producers, those without payroll, fall outside these counts. Hawaii shows 20 establishments in both years while its employment rose from 270 to 532. Where the table is blank or thin, the study counts the subject's competitors directly, from the federal and state production permits this page names and from fieldwork in the trade area, and says so, rather than filling a gap with an estimate.