SBA & USDA Lending Data and Market Intelligence
Arizona Feasibility Study Consultants & Market Data
Arizona's average SBA 7(a) loan runs $595,553, roughly a third above the national average, and the state added 97,044 residents in a single year. Loan Analytics publishes the lending tables, county demographics, and CRE market metrics behind numbers like these, and prepares independent feasibility studies for SBA 7(a), SBA 504, and USDA projects across Arizona when lenders require the full report.
SBA Lending in Arizona: The Current Numbers
Arizona lenders approved 1,533 SBA 7(a) loans totaling $913.0 million in FY2024, and the average loan of $595,553 ran roughly a third above the national figure. More than $2.1 billion in SBA-backed financing moved through the Phoenix metro alone that year.
The decade tells the same story at scale. From FY2015 through FY2024, Arizona borrowers closed 11,269 SBA loans worth $6.40 billion, supporting 141,726 jobs, with Maricopa, Pima, Yavapai, Mohave, and Pinal counties accounting for the bulk of the volume. On the SBA 504 side, CDC TMC Financing reports 137 Arizona projects totaling $192 million in FY2025 alone.
The national backdrop sharpens the picture: FY2025 set an SBA record at 84,400 loans and $44.8 billion approved. Higher volume means busier credit desks and closer scrutiny of borrower projections, which is precisely where independent market data and third-party feasibility studies earn their place in the file. Loan Analytics maintains county-level approval tables for Arizona behind every figure cited here.
Where Arizona Is Growing: County Demographics
Arizona added 97,044 residents between July 2024 and July 2025, a 1.2 percent gain, per the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity's December 2025 estimates. Maricopa County posted the largest numeric increase at 61,543 residents, after ranking first among all U.S. counties for net migration the year before. Pinal County grew fastest at 3.7 percent, crossing the 500,000-resident mark with a gain of 18,127, while Pima County added 7,127 and Yuma County expanded 1.9 percent. At the municipal level, Phoenix added 11,793 residents, with Surprise (+7,027) and Buckeye (+5,968) pacing the West Valley.
The long arc matters as much as the single year. State projections carry Arizona from roughly 7.7 million residents today toward 9.8 million by 2060, a 26 percent increase, with Pinal County projected to more than double. For a feasibility study, these trajectories are the raw material of demand: trade-area population, household formation, and absorption assumptions all stand or fall on county-level growth, and lenders increasingly test borrower projections against independent figures.
Arizona Commercial Real Estate: The Five Major Markets
Industrial is the loudest story. Arizona logged 4.9 million square feet of net industrial absorption in the first quarter of 2026, roughly triple the year-earlier pace, and quarterly industrial investment hit a record $990.8 million. Vacancy readings span 9.2 to 12.4 percent depending on the brokerage's tracking basis, a spread worth keeping in mind whenever two market reports disagree. Multifamily is digesting a construction wave: vacancy stands at 11.8 percent, average asking rent has eased 3 percent to $1,535, and the pipeline has thinned to 16,399 units under construction, down about 30 percent, while the market absorbed roughly 5,800 units in the quarter, close to a tenth of all U.S. absorption.
The other three sectors complete the spread. Retail remains the tightest market in the state at 4.9 percent vacancy with asking rents up 5.8 percent. Office carries the heaviest load at 23.5 percent vacancy, even as Maricopa County ranks first among U.S. counties for capital investment. Hospitality is normalizing: occupancy of 66.0 percent over the trailing twelve months, down 3.3 points, with RevPAR off 3.0 percent, set against a tourism economy worth $30 billion and 185,000 jobs. That divergence between sectors is precisely the question a lender asks a feasibility study to resolve.
Construction Costs: Phoenix Against the National Index
Mortenson's construction cost index for the first quarter of 2026 puts Phoenix at 210.7 against a national reading of 203.2, and the gap is widening: Phoenix costs rose 1.97 percent for the quarter and 7.05 percent year over year, versus 1.69 and 6.77 percent nationally. For a project budget, that differential is not an abstraction. Hard-cost assumptions flow straight into total project cost, loan sizing, and the debt-service coverage a lender stress-tests, and a market where construction inflation runs ahead of the national pace compresses developer margin unless rents and revenues keep up. A feasibility study earns its keep by checking the cost side of the pro forma against current local indices, not last year's.
What This Means for a Feasibility Study in Arizona
Read the four datasets together and the assignment becomes concrete. Record SBA volume and above-average loan sizes mean more Arizona projects are reaching credit committees than ever. Growth concentrated in Maricopa and Pinal means a demand case that works in one county can fail two counties over. Five CRE sectors pointing in different directions mean asset selection, not the Arizona label, drives the outcome. And construction costs running ahead of the national index mean a budget assembled last year is already stale. Every line of a pro forma now has a current, checkable number standing behind it, or against it.
Loan Analytics prepares independent feasibility studies for SBA 7(a), SBA 504, and USDA-financed projects across Arizona, built on the same data published on this page and extended to the subject property: trade-area demographics, competitive supply, demand and absorption, financial projections, and sensitivity testing organized around what credit committees actually review. The study arrives as a third-party document, written for the lender's file.
To scope one, use the form below or write to Info@analytics.loan. Include the property type, the county, and the loan program, and we come back with scope and timeline.
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