Arizona Feasibility Study Consultants & Market Data

Arizona’s average SBA loan runs $595,553, about a fifth above the national average, and the state added 97,044 residents in a single year to reach 7.72 million. Loan Analytics publishes the lending tables, county demographics and CRE market metrics behind numbers like these. We prepare independent feasibility studies for SBA 7(a), SBA 504 and USDA projects across Arizona when lenders require the full report. Increasingly, those reports must answer questions about water and power as well as demand.

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Daniel Smith, MAI

Arizona feasibility study consultant

Loan Analytics, a feasibility study consultant in Arizona for SBA and USDA lenders, writes the independent study a bank, credit union or certified development company puts before its credit committee ahead of a 7(a), 504 or Business and Industry loan. Each engagement starts from the Arizona record this page prints. From FY2017 to FY2026 SBA approved 13,242 loans for $8.59 billion in the state, second only to Colorado in the Mountain division, and 3,785 of them, worth $3.32 billion, sit in the asset classes tracked here: 3,171 under 7(a) for $2.60 billion and 614 under 504 for $722.1 million.

Those classes set an Arizona study's priorities. The hotel and motel class holds $653.2 million on 267 loans at a $2.3 million median, the biggest dollar book and the highest median of any tracked class, and 87 of those loans were 504. Full-service restaurants lead by count with 506 loans, limited-service restaurants follow with 375, and then come fitness centers with 311, physicians' medical offices with 288 and automotive mechanical repair with 283. For a hotel, the study tests room demand, achievable rate and the value of the going concern behind the debt; for a restaurant, gym or clinic, it tests the trade area's households, the competitors already open and the ramp to stabilized sales; for every class it ends with cash flow set against debt service and a downside case the lender can rerun.

The cohort floors set the order of the work. Across the tracked classes Arizona prints an 11.3% cancellation floor and a 3.0% charge-off floor, yet beauty salons print 9.3% charged off and fitness centers 7.9%, against 0.77% for hotels and 1.1% for dental offices. Lending is also concentrated by place: the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro drew 9,960 SBA loans over the same decade and Tucson 1,432. A Loan Analytics study measures the subject against its own class row, its metro row and the lenders already carrying Arizona loans of the same type, so the credit officer reads the projection against the state's record and not against a generic benchmark.

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SBA Lending in Arizona: The Current Numbers

Arizona lenders approved 1,533 SBA 7(a) and 504 loans totaling $913.0 million in FY2024. The average loan of $595,553 ran about 20 percent above the national figure and ranked eighth among the states. Volume rose in FY2025 to roughly 1,869 loans and $1.1 billion. Since fiscal 2010, Arizona borrowers have closed more than 20,700 SBA loans worth more than $11.27 billion ^Corrected, with Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tucson, Mesa and Tempe leading by city. Accommodation and food services is the largest industry by volume.

The lending base is deep and specialized. In calendar 2025, Live Oak Bank, Newtek and Wells Fargo led Arizona 7(a) dollars, and acquisitions accounted for 24.0 percent ^Corrected of the state’s 7(a) volume. On the 504 side, Arizona Capital Source, TMC Financing and CDC Small Business Finance have carried most of the state’s debenture lending since 2010. TMC was named Arizona’s SBA 504 Lender of the Year for the fourth straight year after closing 137 projects worth $192 million in FY2025. Outside the Phoenix and Tucson urbanized areas, much of the state is eligible for USDA Business and Industry guarantees, which carry an 85 percent guarantee on loans under $5 million in fiscal 2026.

The national picture has shifted. After a record FY2025, SBA approvals fell in FY2026 to 56,130 7(a) loans worth $32.4 billion and 6,075 504 loans worth $7.1 billion. Loan counts dropped about 28 percent while average loan size rose about 21 percent, as tighter rules and a 43-day shutdown weighed on smaller deals. SOP 50 10 8.1, effective 1 October 2026, raises the bar further for acquisitions. It requires 1.25x coverage on historical earnings, caps seller notes and passive investor equity at half of the 10 percent injection, and requires a Quality of Earnings report at $3 million and above. With 24.0 percent ^Corrected of Arizona’s 7(a) dollars going to acquisitions, more projects will need independent evidence to clear credit committee, which is where third-party market data and feasibility studies earn their place in the file.

Arizona SBA Lending at a Glance

FY2024 approvals: 1,533 SBA 7(a) and 504 loans for $913.0 million.
Average loan: $595,553, eighth-highest among the states.
FY2025 approvals: about 1,869 loans for roughly $1.1 billion.
Cumulative since FY2010: 20,779 loans worth $11.27 billion ^Corrected.
SBA 504 Lender of the Year: TMC Financing, 137 loans for $192 million in FY2025.
U.S. FY2026: 56,130 7(a) loans for $32.4 billion and 6,075 504 loans for $7.1 billion.

Sources: SBA 7(a) and 504 loan-level data (FOIA), as tabulated by LendingTree and SBA Loan Index; U.S. Small Business Administration; TMC Financing. Compiled by Loan Analytics, November 2026.

Where Arizona Is Growing: County Demographics

Arizona reached 7,718,747 residents on 1 July 2025, adding 97,044 people in a year, a 1.3 percent gain by the state’s official count from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity. Maricopa County added 61,543 residents to reach 4.79 million. Pinal County grew fastest at 3.7 percent, crossing 500,000 with a gain of 18,127. Pima added 7,127 and Yuma 4,147, a 1.9 percent gain. Growth is concentrated on the metro edge: Phoenix added 11,793 residents, Surprise 7,027, Buckeye 5,968 and Goodyear 5,875, and ten cities, from Queen Creek to San Luis, grew more than 5 percent. The federal series tells a more cautious story. Census Bureau estimates put Maricopa’s gain at about 35,400, as net international migration into the county roughly halved from 2024 to 2025. Maricopa led all U.S. counties in net migration in 2023–2024, but the pace has cooled since.

The long arc matters as much as the single year. State projections carry Arizona to about 9.75 million residents by 2060, a 26 percent increase, with metro Phoenix holding nearly three-quarters of the state. The nearer horizon adds about 356,000 residents between 2025 and 2029, and metro Phoenix employment was growing by about 24,000 jobs a year in 2026. For a feasibility study, these trajectories are the raw material of demand: trade-area population, household formation and absorption assumptions all stand or fall on county-level growth. The gap between the state and federal series means a credible study names its source and tests its demand case against both.

Aerial view of two-story suburban houses with tile roofs around a cul-de-sac

Arizona county growth, July 2024 to July 2025:

Maricopa County: +61,543 residents to 4.79 million. The Census series shows a slower +35,411.
Pinal County: +18,127, the fastest growth statewide at 3.7 percent, now above 500,000.
Pima County: +7,127. The City of Tucson has 557,901 residents.
Yuma County: +4,147, up 1.9 percent.
Arizona statewide: +97,044 to 7,718,747, projected to reach 9.75 million by 2060.

Sources: Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity; U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2025.

Arizona Commercial Real Estate: The Five Major Markets

Industrial is the loudest story, and it has turned. Cushman & Wakefield reports Phoenix industrial vacancy at 10.3 percent in the third quarter of 2026, down 300 basis points in a year. Vacancy in buildings of 300,000 square feet and larger fell to 5.1 percent from 14.6 percent, and absorption reached 13.6 million square feet through three quarters, already above all of 2025. Readings range from 9.5 to 13.3 percent depending on the brokerage’s inventory definition, a spread worth keeping in mind whenever two market reports disagree. CBRE puts asking rents up 9 percent year over year, and about 20 million square feet remain under construction, much of it tied to semiconductor supply chains and data centers. Multifamily is past its supply peak: vacancy has eased to about 10.5 percent from a 12.7 percent peak, the market absorbed about 22,400 units over twelve months against 15,800 deliveries, and the construction pipeline has fallen by a third to about 14,100 units.

The other three sectors complete the spread. Retail remains the tightest market in the state, at about 4.4 percent vacancy, with asking rents up 6 percent and an average cap rate near 6.3 percent. Office still carries the heaviest load at about 23 percent vacancy, but it has posted four straight quarters of positive absorption. Over the past year, Phoenix was one of only eight U.S. markets to absorb more than one million square feet. Maricopa County ranked second in the nation behind Harris County, Texas, in Site Selection’s 2026 ranking of counties by projects, investment and jobs. Hospitality rests on a tourism economy that generated $29.7 billion in direct travel spending in 2024 and supported a record 326,359 jobs in 2025. That divergence between sectors is precisely the question a lender asks a feasibility study to resolve.

Arizona commercial real estate, third quarter 2026:

Industrial (Phoenix): vacancy 10.3 percent, down 300 basis points in a year. Large-building vacancy is 5.1 percent, and 13.6 million square feet has been absorbed year to date.
Multifamily (Phoenix): vacancy about 10.5 percent, down from a 12.7 percent peak, with the pipeline down about a third.
Retail (Phoenix): vacancy 4.4 percent, with asking rents up 6.2 percent.
Office (Phoenix): vacancy about 23 percent, with a fourth straight quarter of positive absorption.
Tourism (statewide): $29.7 billion in direct travel spending in 2024 and a record 326,359 tourism jobs in 2025.

Sources: Cushman & Wakefield, CBRE, JLL, Kidder Mathews, Newmark and Savills; CoStar via Solex; Arizona Office of Tourism.

Construction Costs: Phoenix Against the National Index

Mortenson’s Construction Cost Index release for the third quarter of 2026 puts Phoenix costs up 1.21 percent for the quarter and 6.32 percent year over year, against 1.58 and 5.60 percent nationally. Phoenix has run ahead of the national pace in every recent release, and the index level stood at 210.7 against a national 203.2 earlier in 2026. Mortenson identifies megaprojects as the main source of local pressure, with tariffs now embedded in pricing as a structural cost factor. For a project budget, that differential is not an abstraction. Hard-cost assumptions flow straight into total project cost, loan sizing and the debt-service coverage a lender stress-tests. In a market where construction inflation runs ahead of the national pace, developer margin compresses unless rents and revenues keep up. A feasibility study earns its keep by checking the cost side of the pro forma against current local indices, not last year’s.

Construction cost index, third quarter 2026 release:

Phoenix: costs up 1.21 percent for the quarter and 6.32 percent year over year.
United States: costs up 1.58 percent for the quarter and 5.60 percent year over year.
Index level, Q1 2026: Phoenix at 210.7, against 203.2 nationally.

Source: Mortenson Construction Cost Index.

What This Means for a Feasibility Study in Arizona

Read the datasets together and the assignment becomes concrete. Above-average loan sizes and tighter SBA rules mean more Arizona projects reach credit committees with less room for projection-based optimism. Growth concentrated in Maricopa and Pinal, measured differently by state and federal sources, means a demand case that works in one county can fail two counties over. Five CRE sectors pointing in different directions mean asset selection, not the Arizona label, drives the outcome, and construction costs running ahead of the national index mean last year’s budget is already stale. Two supply-side constraints now sit on top of all of it. Arizona’s Colorado River allocation will be cut by 760,000 acre-feet a year in 2027 and 2028, up to a fifth of municipal supply from the Central Arizona Project. New groundwater-based subdivision approvals in the Phoenix area have been halted since 2023, and a 2026 court ruling against the state’s rules is under appeal. On power, APS has said it has made no new commitments to serve data center customers since January 2024, and a 2026 state law created a new framework for very large loads. Water and power capacity are now feasibility variables, not footnotes.

Loan Analytics prepares independent feasibility studies for SBA 7(a), SBA 504 and USDA-financed projects across Arizona, built on the same data published on this page and extended to the subject property. Each study covers trade-area demographics, competitive supply, demand and absorption, water and utility capacity where relevant, financial projections, and sensitivity testing organized around what credit committees actually review. The study arrives as a third-party document, written for the lender’s file.

To scope one, use the form below or write to Info@analytics.loan. Include the property type, the county, and the loan program, and we come back with scope and timeline.

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Arizona Feasibility Study FAQ

How much does a feasibility study cost in Arizona?

There is no single number. Scope depends on the asset type, the loan program, and how much of the market work already exists. Each study is quoted individually after a short scoping conversation: send the property type, county, and program through the form above, and the quote comes back with a defined scope and timeline.

Who requires the study, the SBA or the lender?

Program rules set the trigger, the lender executes it. SBA and USDA guidelines call for an independent feasibility study on many startup, expansion, and new-construction projects, and the document must come from a party independent of both borrower and lender. In practice the lender orders the study, and it is written for the credit file.

Which Arizona counties does the coverage include?

All fifteen. The published tables concentrate on the highest-volume counties, Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, Yavapai, and Mohave, while county-level lending and demographic detail for the rest of the state is maintained in the underlying dataset and appears in individual studies.

How current are the figures on this page?

Each table is labeled with its period. Federal lending figures run through FY2024 and FY2025, market indicators through the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, and population estimates reflect the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity's December 2025 release. Tables are refreshed as the agencies and market sources publish.

Do you prepare studies for USDA projects in rural Arizona?

Yes. USDA Business & Industry and related rural programs are a core use case, and much of Arizona outside the Phoenix and Tucson cores falls within USDA-eligible territory. Eligibility is parcel-specific, so confirming the subject address against current USDA maps is part of scoping every rural engagement.

SBA loan record in Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026

SBA 7(a) and 504 loans approved for projects in Arizona across the asset classes Loan Analytics tracks, from SBA's own loan-level files.

	Loans	Dollars
Both programs	3,785	$3.32 billion
SBA 7(a)	3,171	$2.60 billion
SBA 504	614	$722.1 million

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, SBA loan record in Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor)	11.3%
Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor)	3.0%
Charged off within five years of approval	2.0%

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, SBA loan record in Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Both rates are floors: SBA withholds the status of open loans. A rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort.

SBA loans approved in Arizona by fiscal year, in the asset classes with 10 or more loans and approvals in 5 or more fiscal years

Fiscal year	Loans	Dollars
FY2017	420	$303.6 million
FY2018	325	$275.8 million
FY2019	320	$273.1 million
FY2020	291	$229.3 million
FY2021	412	$446.5 million
FY2022	335	$346.5 million
FY2023	334	$296.4 million
FY2024	441	$366.9 million
FY2025	482	$403.1 million
FY2026	388	$342.4 million

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, SBA loan record in Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Asset classes in Arizona, ranked by loans

Asset class	Loans	Dollars
Full-service restaurant	506	$339.2 million
Limited-service restaurant	375	$232.2 million
Fitness center	311	$149.5 million
Medical office (physicians)	288	$208.5 million
Automotive mechanical repair (car and truck)	283	$178.8 million
Hotel and motel	267	$653.2 million
Assisted living (without nursing care)	203	$189.4 million
Dental office	201	$178.2 million
Coffee shop and snack bar	194	$90.0 million
Beauty salon	167	$39.7 million
Child care center	138	$99.2 million
Gas station and truck stop	119	$185.5 million
Car wash	91	$107.3 million
Veterinary clinic	87	$102.0 million
Rehabilitation and therapy clinic	81	$49.1 million
Self storage	63	$97.5 million
Behavioral health and addiction treatment	61	$57.7 million
Nonresidential lessor (flex, office and retail investor buildings)	45	$46.5 million
School (elementary and secondary, including charter)	45	$53.0 million
Beverage manufacturing (breweries, wineries, distilleries)	43	$37.9 million
Liquor store	34	$29.7 million
Caterers (includes banquet halls with catering staff)	28	$19.3 million
Grocery store	27	$28.2 million
Skilled nursing	26	$21.2 million
Warehouse and distribution	21	$20.0 million
Data center	16	$10.0 million
RV park and campground	15	$34.9 million
Urgent care and ambulatory surgery	13	$26.0 million
Multifamily (lessors of residential buildings)	8	$5.0 million
Manufactured housing community (lessors of other real estate)	6	$7.2 million
Hospital	6	$6.4 million
Continuing care retirement community	5	$1.8 million
Land subdivision	3	fewer than five loans
Parking lot and garage	3	fewer than five loans
Life science lab (research and development)	2	fewer than five loans
Marina	2	fewer than five loans
Cold storage	1	fewer than five loans
Dialysis center	1	fewer than five loans

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, SBA loan record in Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Most active SBA lenders in Arizona's largest classes

Full-service restaurant, SBA 504: lenders by loans approved
Lender	Loans
The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation	37
Arizona Capital Source	21
CDC Small Business Finance Corp.	18

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, Full-service restaurant, SBA 504: lenders by loans approved, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Full-service restaurant, SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved
Lender	Loans
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association	28
Newtek Bank, National Association	28
Northeast Bank	23
Wells Fargo Bank National Association	21
The Huntington National Bank	19

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, Full-service restaurant, SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Limited-service restaurant, SBA 504: lenders by loans approved
Lender	Loans
The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation	35
Arizona Capital Source	26
CDC Small Business Finance Corp.	15

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, Limited-service restaurant, SBA 504: lenders by loans approved, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Limited-service restaurant, SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved
Lender	Loans
The Huntington National Bank	32
Live Oak Banking Company	18
Stearns Bank National Association	15
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association	14
Arizona Capital Source	13

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, Limited-service restaurant, SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Fitness center, SBA 504: lenders by loans approved
Lender	Loans
Arizona Capital Source	12
The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation	7
CDC Small Business Finance Corp.	6

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, Fitness center, SBA 504: lenders by loans approved, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Fitness center, SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved
Lender	Loans
The Huntington National Bank	36
Wells Fargo Bank National Association	18
Midwest Regional Bank	15
Arizona Capital Source	13
Zions Bancorporation, National Association	12

Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, Fitness center, SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved, https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#state-record.

Feasibility study data by asset class in Arizona

Feasibility study data by asset class and SBA program in Arizona

Feasibility study data by metro area in Arizona

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30. Totals add the state's cells across the tracked asset classes; they are not all SBA lending in Arizona.

Feasibility study questions for Arizona

How many SBA loans have gone to Arizona projects in the asset classes Loan Analytics tracks?

Arizona projects in the tracked classes drew 3,785 SBA loans totalling $3.32 billion between FY2017 and FY2026; SBA loans to other kinds of businesses are outside that count. The 7(a) program supplied 3,171 loans ($2.60 billion) and 504 supplied 614 ($722.1 million). FY2025 was the high-water mark at 482 loans and $403.1 million, while FY2020 dipped to 291.

Which asset classes receive the most SBA loans in Arizona?

By number of loans, full-service restaurants come first (506 loans, $339.2 million), then limited-service restaurants (375), fitness centers (311), physicians' medical offices (288) and automotive mechanical repair (283). Hotels and motels rank sixth by count with 267 loans, yet their $653.2 million is the biggest dollar figure in the state. Assisted living without nursing care also stands out, with 203 loans and $189.4 million.

How often are SBA loans in Arizona cancelled or charged off?

Arizona's floors: in the FY2017 to FY2024 approval cohort, cancellations after approval run to 11.3% or more; at least 3.0% of the loans disbursed FY2017 to FY2021 have been charged off so far; and the share charged off before five years had passed from approval is 2.0% or more. These are minimums for the tracked classes, and the actual share may be higher.

Which lenders make the most SBA loans in Arizona?

Certified development companies dominate Arizona's restaurant 504 tables: The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation made 37 full-service and 35 limited-service restaurant loans, with Arizona Capital Source at 21 and 26. On the 7(a) side, JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association and Newtek Bank, National Association each made 28 full-service restaurant loans, and The Huntington National Bank led limited-service restaurants with 32 and fitness centers with 36. Arizona Capital Source also led fitness center 504 lending with 12.

Which Arizona programs can support a project financed with an SBA or USDA loan?

Arizona's economic development agency is the Arizona Commerce Authority; its site sits outside the government domains Loan Analytics reads for these answers, so state incentives are not itemized here and should be confirmed with the Authority. On the federal side, the USDA Rural Development Arizona State Office lists the Business and Industry Guaranteed Loan, the Community Facilities Direct Loan & Grant Program, Rural Energy for America Program energy audit and renewable energy development assistance grants, and Water & Waste Disposal loans and grants.

Source: Arizona | Rural Development, USDA Rural Development

Which state permits and approvals should a feasibility study for a project in Arizona account for?

State environmental permits in Arizona come from the Arizona Department of Environmental Quality. Its site blocked automated reading when Loan Analytics checked it, so this answer does not list individual permits; contact ADEQ to confirm which air, water and waste approvals the project needs, and confirm county and city approvals separately. A study should show each required approval and its expected timing before the financial model assumes an opening date.

What does a feasibility study for a project in Arizona test first?

Arizona's record puts restaurants, fitness centers and medical offices at the top by count, with hotels carrying the largest dollar total ($653.2 million) and assisted living a sizable $189.4 million. A study here first fixes the trade area by drive time, then segments demand and sets a capture rate tied to comparable absorption. For assisted living and hotels, both special-purpose assets, the method then weighs liquidation value alongside cash flow, as the current SBA rules require.

Source: How a Feasibility Study Is Done: The Loan Analytics Methodology, Loan Analytics

Worked examples

Worked Example: SBA 7(a) Hotel Feasibility Study in Arizona, a Closed Motor Inn Reopened as an Independent Lodge

A worked example of the feasibility study a lender would read for a hotel project in Arizona, financed with an SBA 7(a) loan.

State: Arizona · Asset: Hotel · Program: SBA 7(a)

SBA lending in Arizona, FY1991 to FY2026

Every SBA 7(a) and 504 loan approved for a project in Arizona since FY1991, by fiscal year, from SBA's own loan files.

Arizona's SBA record has two peaks of different shapes. The count peak came in FY2007, when 7(a) approvals reached 2,470 loans and 504 approvals 378, the highest figure for either program in any year of the table. The dollar peaks came later: 7(a) dollars set their record at $893.3 million in FY2021 on 1,047 loans, and 504 dollars set theirs at $277.0 million in FY2025 on 222 loans. FY2007's 2,470 loans carried $471.4 million, less than FY2006's $479.0 million on 2,050 loans and less than any year from FY2015 onward. The program in Arizona now writes fewer, larger loans than it did at its count peak, and the loan a study supports today is, on average, a much bigger one.

The fall after FY2007 is the stress case an Arizona study should keep in view. 7(a) approvals dropped to 1,757 in FY2008 and 764 in FY2009, when dollars fell to $231.3 million, and 504 approvals went from 378 to 240 and then 127. 7(a) volume recovered to 972 loans in FY2010 and 1,180 in FY2011, but 504 counts kept sliding to 84 in FY2015, matching FY1999. A lender reading a projection built on today's Arizona demand will ask how the subject would fare in a contraction of that depth, and the downside case belongs in the study, sized against the state's own history rather than a generic haircut.

FY2023 to FY2026 show where the program stands now. 7(a) approvals rose from 1,121 in FY2023 to 1,335 in FY2024 and 1,649 in FY2025, the highest count since FY2008, then eased to 1,223 in FY2026. Dollars fell much less: FY2026's $814.7 million is the third-largest 7(a) year in the table, behind only FY2021 and FY2025. The 504 program traced the same path, from 222 loans and $277.0 million in FY2025 to 177 loans and $207.3 million in FY2026. Fewer approvals carrying nearly the same dollars mean a larger average loan, and the larger the loan, the more of the credit decision rests on evidence a sponsor's projection cannot carry alone.

504 lending in Arizona has changed character since the early years of the table. In FY1991 the program made 16 loans for $4.5 million; in FY2021 and FY2022 it made 227 and 240 loans worth $201.3 million and $258.9 million, and FY2022's dollar total stood as the record until FY2025's $277.0 million. Over FY1991 to FY2026 the state's 504 book adds up to 4,950 loans and $3.55 billion, and FY2017 to FY2026 alone hold 1,675 loans and $1.71 billion of it. A 504 project puts a certified development company into the file beside the bank, and the study has to answer both readers.

Across the whole table, 7(a) approvals total 39,644 loans and $15.51 billion, and the decade from FY2017 to FY2026 holds 11,567 of those loans and $6.88 billion of the dollars. For a study, that split argues for citing the recent decade on loan size and the full record on the cycle. These are gross approvals with cancelled approvals included, which is one reason they can differ from the net and calendar-year tabulations quoted near the top of this page; a study that cites Arizona SBA volume should say which series it uses.

SBA 7(a) and 504 loans approved in Arizona by fiscal year
Fiscal year	SBA 7(a) loans	SBA 7(a) dollars	SBA 504 loans	SBA 504 dollars
FY1991	249	$69.1 million	16	$4.5 million
FY1992	228	$62.4 million	32	$6.8 million
FY1993	266	$74.2 million	56	$15.2 million
FY1994	377	$105.5 million	63	$18.9 million
FY1995	719	$143.5 million	52	$19.3 million
FY1996	863	$240.1 million	77	$26.7 million
FY1997	1,127	$345.2 million	63	$27.2 million
FY1998	985	$275.0 million	85	$32.6 million
FY1999	918	$279.5 million	84	$35.4 million
FY2000	837	$267.7 million	122	$54.6 million
FY2001	843	$250.0 million	115	$54.4 million
FY2002	1,075	$376.0 million	137	$67.4 million
FY2003	1,507	$374.0 million	165	$91.1 million
FY2004	1,748	$466.6 million	207	$111.3 million
FY2005	1,716	$443.7 million	220	$135.0 million
FY2006	2,050	$479.0 million	292	$199.8 million
FY2007	2,470	$471.4 million	378	$253.8 million
FY2008	1,757	$431.8 million	240	$151.7 million
FY2009	764	$231.3 million	127	$76.4 million
FY2010	972	$296.3 million	123	$66.5 million
FY2011	1,180	$482.1 million	122	$54.7 million
FY2012	929	$396.1 million	137	$83.0 million
FY2013	911	$421.9 million	95	$51.5 million
FY2014	1,017	$461.4 million	88	$56.6 million
FY2015	1,278	$575.4 million	84	$71.2 million
FY2016	1,291	$607.9 million	95	$73.2 million
FY2017	1,267	$652.1 million	91	$76.6 million
FY2018	1,159	$598.0 million	86	$75.8 million
FY2019	1,068	$574.0 million	126	$116.0 million
FY2020	871	$545.9 million	148	$110.3 million
FY2021	1,047	$893.3 million	227	$201.3 million
FY2022	827	$566.7 million	240	$258.9 million
FY2023	1,121	$683.8 million	159	$180.4 million
FY2024	1,335	$705.1 million	199	$208.1 million
FY2025	1,649	$847.5 million	222	$277.0 million
FY2026	1,223	$814.7 million	177	$207.3 million
FY1991 to FY2026	39,644	$15.51 billion	4,950	$3.55 billion
FY2017 to FY2026	11,567	$6.88 billion	1,675	$1.71 billion

Source: SBA 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files as of 2026-09-30 (data.sba.gov; gross approvals, cancelled approvals included), aggregated by Loan Analytics; each figure is kept with its source file and retrieval date. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "SBA 7(a) and 504 loans approved in Arizona by fiscal year", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#sba-record-sba-by-year.

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Asset classes financed in Arizona, ranked

Each asset class Loan Analytics tracks, ranked by SBA loans approved in Arizona from FY2017 to FY2026, with loan size, program split and the cohort floors where at least 30 loans support them.

Ranked by count, Arizona's SBA lending is led by restaurants, gyms, medical offices and repair shops; ranked by dollars, it is led by hotels. Full-service restaurants come first with 506 loans and $339.2 million, but hotels and motels, sixth by count with 267 loans, carry $653.2 million, the largest dollar total of any class by a wide margin. Gas stations and truck stops show the same pattern on a smaller scale: twelfth by count with 119 loans, they hold $185.5 million, more than dental offices with 201 loans or automotive repair with 283. The depth of a study should follow the dollars at risk, not the number of similar loans.

The median column sorts the classes into different kinds of study. At the top sit hotels ($2.3 million), gas stations ($1.2 million), self storage ($1.0 million), veterinary clinics ($930,000), schools ($896,000), car washes ($888,000) and nonresidential lessors ($869,200), projects where the lender's main question is whether the property earns its cost. At the bottom sit beauty salons ($150,000), caterers ($275,000), rehabilitation clinics ($286,000), fitness centers ($316,000) and coffee shops ($350,000), where the loan finances an operating business and the study's weight shifts to sales, staffing and nearby competitors. Assisted living ($700,000) and liquor stores ($750,500) sit between and need both halves.

The program split shows where certified development companies compete. Hotels have 87 SBA 504 loans, the most of any class, ahead of limited-service restaurants with 81 and full-service restaurants with 77, though limited-service restaurants made fewer loans overall; automotive repair follows with 52 and medical offices with 42. Self storage is the most evenly split of any class with a printed cancellation floor, 36 loans under 7(a) and 27 under 504, and car washes run 65 to 26. At the other end, 162 of the 167 beauty salon loans and 44 of the 45 nonresidential lessor loans were 7(a). Which program carries the loan decides who reads the study, and on 504 loans it has two institutional readers, not one.

The charge-off floors draw the sharpest line on the page. Beauty salons print 9.3%, fitness centers 7.9% and coffee shops 6.3%, all small-loan classes financed almost entirely through 7(a), and full-service restaurants print 4.6% against 3.0% for limited-service restaurants. At the low end, hotels print 0.77%, dental offices 1.1%, assisted living 1.9% and medical offices 2.3%, and child care centers, gas stations, veterinary clinics and rehabilitation clinics print 0.00% so far. Open loans have no published outcome, so each rate is a minimum, and a 0.00% floor records no charge-off yet, not an absence of risk. Where the floor is high, the lender will read the revenue ramp and the downside case first; where it is low, attention moves to cost, value and the sponsor's equity.

Cancellations are a separate risk from losses. The highest cancellation floors belong to nonresidential lessors (24.4%), liquor stores (20.0%), self storage (18.2%), veterinary clinics (16.0%) and beverage manufacturing (14.7%). Gas stations print a 12.2% cancellation floor against a 0.00% charge-off floor, and veterinary clinics 16.0% against 0.00%, so in those classes the record shows approvals later cancelled and no charge-off so far. The lowest cancellation floors sit in health care: behavioral health at 5.0%, dental offices at 5.9% and rehabilitation clinics at 6.2%. For an Arizona self storage or veterinary project, the study's work before approval is to settle the site, the budget and the demand evidence, so that nothing left open gives the approval a reason to lapse.

Below the cohort threshold the page prints counts and dollars but no rate. Car washes (91 loans, $107.3 million) and self storage (63 loans, $97.5 million) carry cancellation floors but too few loans in the charge-off cohort for a loss rate, and schools, caterers, grocery stores and skilled nursing print no rate of either kind. RV parks show 15 loans for $34.9 million and data centers 16 for $10.0 million, too few for a median. For these projects an Arizona study cannot lean on a state loss rate; it builds the downside from the subject's own market and the competitors operating today, and the report states openly that Arizona's own loan record for the class is too thin to give one.

SBA loans in Arizona by asset class, FY2017 to FY2026
Asset class	Loans	Dollars	Median loan	SBA 7(a) loans	SBA 504 loans	Cancelled (floor)	Charged off (floor)
Full-service restaurant	506	$339.2 million	$404,000	429	77	11.3%	4.6%
Limited-service restaurant	375	$232.2 million	$445,000	294	81	12.1%	3.0%
Fitness center	311	$149.5 million	$316,000	285	26	11.9%	7.9%
Medical office (physicians)	288	$208.5 million	$395,500	246	42	12.3%	2.3%
Automotive mechanical repair (car and truck)	283	$178.8 million	$400,000	231	52	9.9%	3.5%
Hotel and motel	267	$653.2 million	$2.3 million	180	87	10.8%	0.77%
Assisted living (without nursing care)	203	$189.4 million	$700,000	174	29	7.2%	1.9%
Dental office	201	$178.2 million	$569,000	186	15	5.9%	1.1%
Coffee shop and snack bar	194	$90.0 million	$350,000	179	15	11.4%	6.3%
Beauty salon	167	$39.7 million	$150,000	162	5	10.8%	9.3%
Child care center	138	$99.2 million	$481,350	116	22	12.0%	0.00%
Gas station and truck stop	119	$185.5 million	$1.2 million	103	16	12.2%	0.00%
Car wash	91	$107.3 million	$888,000	65	26	13.0%	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Veterinary clinic	87	$102.0 million	$930,000	78	9	16.0%	0.00%
Rehabilitation and therapy clinic	81	$49.1 million	$286,000	63	18	6.2%	0.00%
Self storage	63	$97.5 million	$1.0 million	36	27	18.2%	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Behavioral health and addiction treatment	61	$57.7 million	$548,000	48	13	5.0%	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Nonresidential lessor (flex, office and retail investor buildings)	45	$46.5 million	$869,200	44	1	24.4%	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
School (elementary and secondary, including charter)	45	$53.0 million	$896,000	33	12	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Beverage manufacturing (breweries, wineries, distilleries)	43	$37.9 million	$500,000	37	6	14.7%	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Liquor store	34	$29.7 million	$750,500	31	3	20.0%	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Caterers (includes banquet halls with catering staff)	28	$19.3 million	$275,000	26	2	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Grocery store	27	$28.2 million	$699,000	20	7	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Skilled nursing	26	$21.2 million	$568,500	15	11	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Warehouse and distribution	21	$20.0 million	too few loans for these measures
Data center	16	$10.0 million	too few loans for these measures
RV park and campground	15	$34.9 million	too few loans for these measures
Urgent care and ambulatory surgery	13	$26.0 million	too few loans for these measures
Multifamily (lessors of residential buildings)	8	$5.0 million	too few loans for these measures
Manufactured housing community (lessors of other real estate)	6	$7.2 million	too few loans for these measures
Hospital	6	$6.4 million	too few loans for these measures
Continuing care retirement community	5	$1.8 million	too few loans for these measures
Land subdivision	3	fewer than five loans	too few loans for these measures
Parking lot and garage	3	fewer than five loans	too few loans for these measures
Life science lab (research and development)	2	fewer than five loans	too few loans for these measures
Marina	2	fewer than five loans	too few loans for these measures
Cold storage	1	fewer than five loans	too few loans for these measures
Dialysis center	1	fewer than five loans	too few loans for these measures

Source: Loan Analytics' SBA loan record from SBA's 7(a) and 504 loan-level files, approvals FY2017 to FY2026 as of 2026-09-30; rates are floors and need at least 30 loans in their cohort; dollars are not shown where fewer than five loans would reveal a single loan. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "SBA loans in Arizona by asset class, FY2017 to FY2026", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#asset-classes-classes.

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Metro and micro areas in Arizona

SBA lending in the metropolitan and micropolitan areas that reach into Arizona, ranked by loans: every SBA 7(a) and 504 approval in each area, all industries together, not only the asset classes Loan Analytics tracks.

SBA lending in Arizona is a Phoenix story first. The Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro drew 9,960 SBA loans and $6.43 billion over FY2017 to FY2026; the whole state drew 13,242 loans and $8.59 billion in the division comparison on this page. Tucson is a distant second with 1,432 loans and $829.0 million. The rest of the list runs from Prescott Valley-Prescott's 495 loans down through Lake Havasu City-Kingman (411), Flagstaff (283), Yuma (172) and Sierra Vista-Douglas (147) to the Show Low micro area's 133. The concentration cuts both ways for a study: a Phoenix project has deep comparable lending to cite, and a project elsewhere has to build more of its case from fieldwork.

Loan size does not track volume. Prescott Valley-Prescott prints the highest metro median at $393,000, ahead of Flagstaff at $375,000 and Show Low at $350,000, while Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler sits at $334,000, Lake Havasu City-Kingman at $333,000 and Tucson at $277,700. Yuma's $150,000 is the lowest. Show Low drew fewer loans than Yuma but more dollars, $104.7 million against $76.6 million. In the northern areas, then, a study often supports a larger loan in a smaller market, a combination that puts more weight on the study's own local evidence.

Only Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler and Tucson have enough loans for a printed charge-off floor, 5.0% and 6.1%; every other area's rate is withheld, which is not a zero and is never treated as one. These metro rows are not limited to the tracked classes, as the Phoenix count alone shows against the state's 3,785 tracked-class loans, so they rest on a broader base than the state's 3.0% floor for tracked classes and are not a like-for-like comparison with it. Within the metro table itself, Tucson's minimum loss rate is higher than Phoenix's, and a Tucson study should expect the lender to ask what makes the subject stronger than the metro's record.

The table also tells a study where its comparables will come from. Lake Havasu City-Kingman's 411 loans carried $317.7 million and Flagstaff's 283 loans $255.3 million, books large enough to show which lenders work there and at what size. Sierra Vista-Douglas, with 147 loans and $88.5 million, and Yuma, with 172 loans and $76.6 million, are thinner, and there the study leans on the competitive survey and the trade area's households more than on lending history. Projects in these smaller areas may also sit in territory eligible for USDA Business and Industry guarantees, as this page notes above, which brings the B&I record into the study.

SBA loans by metro area touching Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026
Metro or micro area	Loans	Dollars	Median loan	Charged off (floor)
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area	9,960	$6.43 billion	$334,000	5.0%
Tucson, AZ Metro Area	1,432	$829.0 million	$277,700	6.1%
Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ Metro Area	495	$347.2 million	$393,000	withheld
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ Metro Area	411	$317.7 million	$333,000	withheld
Flagstaff, AZ Metro Area	283	$255.3 million	$375,000	withheld
Yuma, AZ Metro Area	172	$76.6 million	$150,000	withheld
Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ Metro Area	147	$88.5 million	$287,000	withheld
Show Low, AZ Micro Area	133	$104.7 million	$350,000	withheld

Source: Loan Analytics' SBA loan record from SBA's 7(a) and 504 loan-level files, approvals FY2017 to FY2026 as of 2026-09-30; rates are floors and need at least 30 loans in their cohort; dollars are not shown where fewer than five loans would reveal a single loan. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "SBA loans by metro area touching Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#metros-metros.

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SBA lenders in Arizona

The SBA lenders with a recorded book of loans for projects in Arizona, ranked by loans; no lender with fewer than 5 loans is listed.

Arizona's lender table ranks differently by count and by dollars. Wells Fargo Bank National Association leads by loans with 979 for $355.0 million, ahead of U.S. Bank, National Association (724 loans), Arizona Capital Source (720) and JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association (703). Ranked by dollars instead, and counting only lenders whose totals are printed, The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation comes first at $752.5 million across 619 loans. Live Oak Banking Company follows at $526.6 million across 376, Arizona Capital Source is third at $474.5 million, and CDC Small Business Finance Corp. is fourth at $419.3 million; all four sit above Wells Fargo Bank National Association. The lenders with the biggest Arizona dollar books are mostly not the ones with the most loans.

The 504 side runs through a few development companies. The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation and CDC Small Business Finance Corp. appear only in the 504 class tables on this page, while Arizona Capital Source appears in both the 504 and the 7(a) tables. Arizona Capital Source prints a 1.5% charge-off floor across its 720 loans and CDC Small Business Finance Corp. 3.5% across 544; The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation's rate is withheld, and California Statewide Certified Development Corporation's 78 loans have their dollars withheld. Because these desks have financed Arizona restaurants and fitness centers in numbers over the decade, they can set a study's projections against many comparable files of their own, and the study should expect that comparison.

Lender floors range widely. Northeast Bank (ME) prints 28.9% on 363 loans that carried $59.9 million, and BayFirst National Bank 23.1% on 323 loans and $60.7 million: books of many small loans with the highest loss minimums in the table. Live Oak Banking Company, Enterprise Bank & Trust, BMO Bank National Association and Simmons Bank print 0.00% so far, and Arizona Capital Source prints 1.5%. No study rewrites a lender's record, though it can be scoped to the questions that record raises: on a small-loan desk with a high floor, the sales forecast and the sponsor's cushion; on a desk with large loans and a low floor, value and coverage.

Credit unions hold a visible place in the table. Arizona Financial Credit Union made 288 loans for $210.6 million at a 3.0% floor, America First Federal Credit Union 219 loans for $253.4 million, and Mountain America FCU 130 loans for $50.7 million. Among banks, MidFirst Bank's 230 loans carried $242.9 million, Zions Bancorporation, National Association made 564 loans for $205.2 million at a 7.1% floor, and Celtic Bank Corporation 344 loans for $262.3 million at 7.4%. The width of this pool helps a sponsor: a project declined at one desk has other lenders active in Arizona with books in the same size range, and a study written to the state's record rather than to one lender's format travels with the file.

Book size varies as much as count. St. Louis Bank made 97 loans for $126.0 million and Byline Bank 76 for $97.4 million, while WaFd Bank's 37 loans totalled $1.6 million and DreamSpring's 40 totalled $4.5 million. A hotel or gas station sponsor seeking a large 7(a) loan and a salon or gym owner seeking a small one are likely to sit across from different lenders, so the study is written for whichever desk will read it.

SBA lenders by loans approved in Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026
Lender	Loans	Dollars	Charged off (floor)
Wells Fargo Bank National Association	979	$355.0 million	4.2%
U.S. Bank, National Association	724	$166.8 million	6.9%
Arizona Capital Source	720	$474.5 million	1.5%
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association	703	$255.6 million	5.2%
The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation	619	$752.5 million	withheld
Zions Bancorporation, National Association	564	$205.2 million	7.1%
CDC Small Business Finance Corp.	544	$419.3 million	3.5%
The Huntington National Bank	400	$142.5 million	withheld
Live Oak Banking Company	376	$526.6 million	0.00%
PNC Bank, National Association	371	$124.9 million	4.1%
Newtek Bank, National Association	368	$131.2 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Northeast Bank (ME)	363	$59.9 million	28.9%
Celtic Bank Corporation	344	$262.3 million	7.4%
BayFirst National Bank	323	$60.7 million	23.1%
Arizona Financial Credit Union	288	$210.6 million	3.0%
Midwest Regional Bank	233	$177.0 million	withheld
MidFirst Bank	230	$242.9 million	withheld
Readycap Lending, LLC	229	$109.5 million	withheld
America First Federal Credit Union	219	$253.4 million	withheld
Enterprise Bank & Trust	209	$194.2 million	0.00%
United Midwest Savings Bank National Association	205	$70.4 million	withheld
BMO Bank National Association	154	$102.4 million	0.00%
Bank of America, National Association	148	$86.3 million	withheld
Fifth Third Bank	146	$46.6 million	withheld
Alerus Financial, National Association	134	$115.8 million	withheld
Newtek Small Business Finance, LLC	130	$85.3 million	withheld
Mountain America FCU	130	$50.7 million	withheld
Stearns Bank National Association	127	$47.0 million	withheld
Western Alliance Bank	126	$81.6 million	withheld
BNC National Bank	121	$53.1 million	withheld
Bell Bank	111	$88.5 million	withheld
Sunflower Bank National Association	110	$82.4 million	withheld
BOKF, National Association	104	$72.7 million	withheld
St. Louis Bank	97	$126.0 million	withheld
Harvest Small Business Finance, LLC	83	$66.1 million	withheld
California Statewide Certified Development Corporation	78	withheld	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Lendistry SBLC, LLC	77	$19.0 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Byline Bank	76	$97.4 million	withheld
UMB Bank, National Association	74	$59.7 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Banc of California	69	$86.9 million	withheld
The Bancorp Bank National Association	66	$56.1 million	withheld
Southwest Heritage Bank	64	$37.5 million	withheld
Columbia Bank (OR)	63	$64.8 million	withheld
First Bank of the Lake	58	$51.1 million	withheld
First Internet Bank of Indiana	58	$63.2 million	withheld
Citizens Bank (TN)	48	$28.1 million	withheld
Glacier Bank	47	$20.2 million	withheld
VelocitySBA, LLC	46	$52.1 million	withheld
Five Star Bank (CA)	45	$11.3 million	withheld
First-Citizens Bank & Trust Company	42	$26.7 million	withheld
Simmons Bank	42	$21.5 million	0.00%
T Bank, National Association	42	$59.0 million	withheld
DreamSpring	40	$4.5 million	withheld
Busey Bank	39	$45.8 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Integro Bank	38	$43.1 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
United Community Bank (SC)	37	$27.2 million	withheld
WaFd Bank	37	$1.6 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Happen Bank	35	$23.1 million	withheld
Evolve Bank and Trust	31	$25.4 million	withheld
TowneBank	29	$16.9 million	withheld
Independence Bank	29	$3.8 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Bank Five Nine	27	$25.5 million	withheld
Bank of Hope	26	$52.6 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Gulf Coast Bank and Trust Company	26	$27.6 million	withheld
First Bank (NC)	25	$27.5 million	withheld
First Merchants Bank	25	$19.1 million	withheld
CenTrust Bank, A Division of SmartBiz Bank National Association	25	$4.7 million	not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort

Source: Loan Analytics' SBA loan record from SBA's 7(a) and 504 loan-level files, approvals FY2017 to FY2026 as of 2026-09-30; rates are floors and need at least 30 loans in their cohort; dollars are not shown where fewer than five loans would reveal a single loan. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "SBA lenders by loans approved in Arizona, FY2017 to FY2026", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#lenders-lenders.

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Arizona against its Census division and the nation

Arizona beside the other states of the Mountain Census division, all SBA lending and the tracked asset classes.

Within the Mountain division, Arizona ranks second to Colorado on recent SBA lending and third on the full record. From FY1991 to FY2026, Colorado's 53,617 SBA loans and Utah's 44,818 both exceed Arizona's 44,594; from FY2017 to FY2026, Arizona's 13,242 loans and $8.59 billion pass Utah's 12,361 and $7.22 billion and trail only Colorado's 16,797 and $10.39 billion. Arizona overtook Utah in the recent decade, momentum a study can cite, but the state is not yet the division's deepest SBA market.

The tracked classes keep the same order: Colorado 5,131 loans, Arizona 3,785, Utah 2,972, then Nevada 1,832 and Idaho 1,660. On charge-offs Arizona lands mid-division: its 3.0% floor is below Nevada's 5.0%, Colorado's 3.9% and Montana's 3.1%, and above Utah's 2.6%, Idaho's 2.4% and New Mexico's 2.1%, with Wyoming at 0.00% on 296 loans. The middle position matters to a buyer: an Arizona project is not marked down by its state's record, but it gets no regional credit either, and the study has to earn the lender's comfort from the subject itself.

Against the nation, Arizona's 13,242 loans from FY2017 to FY2026 sit within a national total of 647,329 loans and $353.09 billion, and its long record of 44,594 loans within 2,207,426. The national row prints no tracked-class floor to set beside Arizona's, so this page makes no claim that the state performs better or worse than the country; the division table is the like-for-like comparison, and it is the one a study should cite.

SBA lending: Arizona, the Mountain division and the United States
State	All SBA loans FY1991 to FY2026	All SBA loans FY2017 to FY2026	All SBA dollars FY2017 to FY2026	Loans in tracked classes FY2017 to FY2026	Charged off, tracked classes (floor)
Arizona	44,594	13,242	$8.59 billion	3,785	3.0%
Colorado	53,617	16,797	$10.39 billion	5,131	3.9%
Idaho	22,125	6,477	$2.83 billion	1,660	2.4%
Montana	14,132	2,480	$1.25 billion	701	3.1%
Nevada	20,163	6,771	$3.97 billion	1,832	5.0%
New Mexico	12,544	2,818	$1.61 billion	846	2.1%
Utah	44,818	12,361	$7.22 billion	2,972	2.6%
Wyoming	5,371	1,178	$615.5 million	296	0.00%
United States	2,207,426	647,329	$353.09 billion

Source: SBA 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files as of 2026-09-30 (data.sba.gov; gross approvals, cancelled approvals included), aggregated by Loan Analytics; each figure is kept with its source file and retrieval date. Loan Analytics' SBA loan record from SBA's 7(a) and 504 loan-level files, approvals FY2017 to FY2026 as of 2026-09-30; rates are floors and need at least 30 loans in their cohort; dollars are not shown where fewer than five loans would reveal a single loan. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "SBA lending: Arizona, the Mountain division and the United States", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#compare-compare.

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Arizona's economy for a feasibility study

The establishments, jobs and payroll of each asset class's industry in Arizona, and the state's population, income and output, from the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Arizona's demand base grew quickly between the Census and BEA readings. Population rose from 7,278,717 in 2019 to 7,582,384 in 2024 and median household income from $62,055 to $81,486; gross domestic product went from $375.36 billion in 2019 to $592.10 billion in 2025 and personal income from $336.75 billion to $521.26 billion. Unless a series is stated in constant dollars, it mixes real growth with price change, and a study that carries these figures into a revenue forecast should separate the two before crediting the subject with either. The population figure also sits beside the state's own July 2025 estimate quoted above, from a different agency and year, and the study should name its choice.

Restaurants are the largest employers in the table and the clearest case of shifting demand. Limited-service restaurants grew from 4,941 establishments to 5,713 between 2018 and 2023 and from 99,865 employees to 120,520, passing full-service restaurants, which held nearly flat at 115,346 and 115,968 employees on 4,309 and 4,464 establishments. Coffee shops and snack bars grew faster still, from 1,203 establishments to 1,741 and from 14,577 employees to 24,659. SBA lending still ranks full-service restaurants first by loans, so an Arizona full-service study must show why its concept will draw diners in a segment whose employment stood still while quick-service and coffee formats expanded around it, and a coffee study, given that class's 6.3% charge-off floor, must prove its location can hold customers in a field that keeps adding shops.

Health care is where establishment counts climbed fastest. Behavioral health and addiction treatment establishments rose from 362 to 617 in the outpatient code and from 223 to 414 in the residential one, the steepest establishment gains in the table, with employment up from 10,824 to 15,676 and from 5,510 to 8,836, and payrolls of $963.7 million and $440.2 million in 2023. Rehabilitation and therapy clinics went from 918 to 1,219 establishments and from 7,732 to 11,555 employees. Dental offices grew from 2,757 to 2,922, while physicians' offices barely moved, 4,990 to 5,008, yet carry the largest payroll in the table at $5.59 billion. Where establishments have grown this fast, as in behavioral health, the study's question is saturation and payer mix rather than unmet need, and the lender will ask how many competing programs have opened inside the trade area since the last count.

Hotels moved the other way. The establishment count held at 1,080 in 2018 and 1,078 in 2023, but employment fell from 44,759 to 40,772, on a 2023 payroll of $1.69 billion. The same class carries the largest SBA dollars in Arizona, $653.2 million. A hotel study here has to explain how the subject staffs and operates in a market where the existing stock employs fewer people than it did, and whether its rate and occupancy forecast assumes service levels the local labor market can deliver.

Among the property-heavy classes, car washes and self storage added establishments: car washes from 340 to 402 with employment up from 3,753 to 5,068, and self storage from 437 to 530. Gas stations did not. Stations with convenience stores went from 1,498 to 1,489 establishments with employment flat at 16,919 and 16,949, and other gasoline stations from 106 to 105, although their employment rose from 2,677 to 3,464. Nonresidential lessors added establishments, 550 to 615, while their employment fell from 3,261 to 2,833. A new Arizona car wash enters a field that is filling, and its study must count the washes opened since 2023 that this table cannot show; a new gas station enters one that is not growing in number, so its case rests on traffic and households at the site taking share from stations already there.

Elsewhere the table separates steady growth from crowding. School employment rose from 24,981 to 31,364 on 583 and 620 establishments, veterinary employment from 8,066 to 10,987, and general automotive repair from 7,780 to 9,679 on 1,521 and 1,680 shops. Beauty salons went from 1,326 establishments to 1,711 while employees slipped from 8,385 to 8,312, and because County Business Patterns leaves self-employed operators out, the table does not see any independent stylists competing for the same clients; and since salons post the top class floor for charge-offs, 9.3%, a salon study must prove its price point and client base against that crowding. Wineries rose from 27 establishments to 44 and from 192 employees to 463, the sharpest change among the beverage codes, while breweries went from 47 to 51.

Industry establishments, employees and payroll in Arizona, by asset class
Asset class (NAICS)	Establishments 2018	Establishments 2023	Employees 2018	Employees 2023	Annual payroll 2023
Full-service restaurant (NAICS 722511)	4,309	4,464	115,346	115,968	$3.40 billion
Limited-service restaurant (NAICS 722513)	4,941	5,713	99,865	120,520	$2.65 billion
Fitness center (NAICS 713940)	710	813	13,944	16,141	$280.7 million
Medical office (physicians) (NAICS 621111)	4,990	5,008	48,964	52,453	$5.59 billion
Automotive mechanical repair (car and truck) (NAICS 811111)	1,521	1,680	7,780	9,679	$561.6 million
Automotive mechanical repair (car and truck) (NAICS 811112)	17	16	42	48	$2.1 million
Automotive mechanical repair (car and truck) (NAICS 811113)	85	83	321	339	$17.9 million
Automotive mechanical repair (car and truck) (NAICS 811118)	62	93	367	552	$28.8 million
Hotel and motel (NAICS 721110)	1,080	1,078	44,759	40,772	$1.69 billion
Assisted living (without nursing care) (NAICS 623312)	729	749	13,187	13,768	$507.9 million
Dental office (NAICS 621210)	2,757	2,922	18,521	21,222	$1.23 billion
Coffee shop and snack bar (NAICS 722515)	1,203	1,741	14,577	24,659	$510.1 million
Beauty salon (NAICS 812112)	1,326	1,711	8,385	8,312	$266.6 million
Child care center (NAICS 624410)	888	965	13,190	13,790	$429.2 million
Gas station and truck stop (NAICS 447110)	1,498	1,489	16,919	16,949	$542.0 million
Gas station and truck stop (NAICS 447190)	106	105	2,677	3,464	$128.6 million
Car wash (NAICS 811192)	340	402	3,753	5,068	$145.7 million
Veterinary clinic (NAICS 541940)	690	731	8,066	10,987	$560.5 million
Rehabilitation and therapy clinic (NAICS 621340)	918	1,219	7,732	11,555	$518.3 million
Self storage (NAICS 531130)	437	530	1,181	1,436	$59.2 million
Behavioral health and addiction treatment (NAICS 621420)	362	617	10,824	15,676	$963.7 million
Behavioral health and addiction treatment (NAICS 623220)	223	414	5,510	8,836	$440.2 million
Nonresidential lessor (flex, office and retail investor buildings) (NAICS 531120)	550	615	3,261	2,833	$275.7 million
School (elementary and secondary, including charter) (NAICS 611110)	583	620	24,981	31,364	$1.45 billion
Beverage manufacturing (breweries, wineries, distilleries) (NAICS 312120)	47	51	895	1,016	$43.8 million
Beverage manufacturing (breweries, wineries, distilleries) (NAICS 312130)	27	44	192	463	$14.5 million
Beverage manufacturing (breweries, wineries, distilleries) (NAICS 312140)	6	7	41	49	$1.9 million
Liquor store (NAICS 445310)	206	234	1,323	1,814	$56.1 million
Caterers (includes banquet halls with catering staff) (NAICS 722320)	149	177	1,883	2,375	$62.1 million
Grocery store (NAICS 445110)	779	802	48,892	52,245	$1.77 billion
Skilled nursing (NAICS 623110)	231	242	18,729	18,351	$816.8 million

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, County Business Patterns 2018 and 2023 (NAICS 2017), through the Census Data API; establishments, March employment and annual payroll; suppressed cells print their flag. Most government and self-employed activity is outside CBP. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "Industry establishments, employees and payroll in Arizona, by asset class", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#economy-industry.

Population and household income in Arizona
Measure	2019	2024
Population	7,278,717	7,582,384
Median household income	$62,055	$81,486

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 1-year estimates, 2019 and 2024, through the Census Data API (tables B01003 and B19013). Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "Population and household income in Arizona", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#economy-people.

Output and income in Arizona
Measure	Earlier year	Latest year
Gross domestic product, 2019 and 2025	$375.36 billion	$592.10 billion
Personal income, 2019 and 2025	$336.75 billion	$521.26 billion

Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, regional accounts (SAGDP2 all-industry total, current dollars; SAINC1 personal income), through the BEA API. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "Output and income in Arizona", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#economy-output.

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USDA Business and Industry guarantees in Arizona

New USDA B&I guaranteed loan awards for projects in Arizona by fiscal year, and by county, from USAspending; aggregates only.

USDA Business and Industry guarantees are a small, lumpy market in Arizona. USAspending records 18 new awards for $106.7 million in FY2021, the most in the table on both measures, and 15 for $77.0 million in FY2023, while most other years fall between 5 and 11 awards. FY2022 had only 3 awards yet $41.7 million in face value, and FY2012 had 7 awards for just $4.6 million. Each year turns on a handful of projects, so a B&I sponsor in Arizona should not expect its lender to hold a deep in-state file of comparable guarantees, and the study has to supply the market evidence the record cannot.

After FY2023's 15 awards, Arizona recorded 5 awards for $50.2 million in FY2024 and 7 for $58.7 million in FY2025. FY2026 shows 1 award whose value is withheld because fewer than 3 awards make up the year, and FY2008 is withheld for the same reason. A withheld year is not a zero and says nothing about the size of that award; it is simply too small a year to publish.

The record also shows a step change in scale. From FY2009 to FY2016 the printed annual totals ran from $4.6 million to $25.9 million; from FY2017 onward the smallest printed year is FY2018's $26.7 million, above every year of the earlier stretch, and the largest is FY2021's $106.7 million. Annual B&I volume in Arizona stepped up from FY2017 without a matching jump in award counts, so the typical project is larger than before, and a study written for one of them is read by USDA Rural Development as well as the lender.

Rural Arizona projects also carry the water and power questions raised earlier on this page, the Colorado River cuts and the pause on new groundwater-based subdivisions near Phoenix among them. A B&I study for a project outside the Phoenix and Tucson cores therefore documents the subject's water supply and utility service before its demand case is allowed to count, and it ties that demand case to the county's own households rather than to the statewide growth figures above.

USDA B&I guaranteed loan awards in Arizona by fiscal year
Fiscal year	New awards	Face value, net
FY2026	1	withheld: fewer than 3 awards
FY2025	7	$58.7 million
FY2024	5	$50.2 million
FY2023	15	$77.0 million
FY2022	3	$41.7 million
FY2021	18	$106.7 million
FY2020	14	$56.9 million
FY2019	8	$34.7 million
FY2018	7	$26.7 million
FY2017	11	$56.2 million
FY2016	7	$25.1 million
FY2015	5	$25.9 million
FY2014	8	$25.2 million
FY2013	8	$20.7 million
FY2012	7	$4.6 million
FY2011	9	$11.7 million
FY2010	6	$10.8 million
FY2009	8	$13.4 million
FY2008	1	withheld: fewer than 3 awards

Source: USAspending.gov records of USDA Business and Industry guaranteed loan awards by project state, face value of the loan net of later changes, as compiled in Loan Analytics' USDA tables; a year's dollars are withheld where fewer than 3 awards were touched that year (new awards and later actions together), so a year can show dollars beside 0, 1 or 2 new awards; FY2026 runs through August 31, 2026; aggregates only, no recipient is named. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "USDA B&I guaranteed loan awards in Arizona by fiscal year", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#usda-usda-by-year.

USDA B&I guaranteed loan awards in Arizona by county, FY2015 to FY2026
County	Awards	Face value
Coconino, AZ (FIPS 04005)	17	$104.9 million
Mohave, AZ (FIPS 04015)	14	$62.7 million
Maricopa, AZ (FIPS 04013)	13	$85.4 million
Yavapai, AZ (FIPS 04025)	13	$115.3 million
Pinal, AZ (FIPS 04021)	11	$82.1 million
Cochise, AZ (FIPS 04003)	8	$24.0 million
Navajo, AZ (FIPS 04017)	6	$14.1 million
La Paz, AZ (FIPS 04012)	5	$14.4 million
Santa Cruz, AZ (FIPS 04023)	5	$23.0 million
Pima, AZ (FIPS 04019)	4	fewer than 5 awards
Gila, AZ (FIPS 04007)	3	fewer than 5 awards
Apache, AZ (FIPS 04001)	1	fewer than 5 awards
Graham, AZ (FIPS 04009)	1	fewer than 5 awards

Source: USAspending.gov award records of USDA Business and Industry guarantees (assistance listing 10.768) by place of performance county, face value net, FY2015 through August 31, 2026, aggregated by Loan Analytics; dollars are withheld where fewer than 5 awards stand behind them; no recipient is named. Download this table (CSV). Cite as: Loan Analytics, "USDA B&I guaranteed loan awards in Arizona by county, FY2015 to FY2026", https://www.analytics.loan/arizona-feasibility-study-data#usda-usda-by-county.

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Questions buyers ask

Who writes the feasibility study an Arizona lender files for an SBA or USDA loan?

Loan Analytics does, as a third party with no stake in the loan or the business, and the signature on an Arizona report is that of Daniel Smith, MAI. An Arizona engagement opens on the record printed here, the 13,242 SBA loans and $8.59 billion Arizona drew over the decade to FY2026, and narrows to the subject: its class row, from the 267 hotel loans to the 91 car wash loans; its metro, from Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler's 9,960 loans to the Show Low micro area's 133; and the lenders that financed comparable projects. The finished report goes into the lender's file for a 7(a), 504 or B&I credit decision.

What do published fees look like for an Arizona hotel, gas station or car wash study?

The 2026 fee survey Loan Analytics keeps on this site sets a one-site SBA assignment for a standard special-purpose property, the car wash, gas station, self storage or restaurant kind, in a $5,000 to $12,500 band, while complex assignments such as a ground-up hotel, assisted living or several sites in one file fall at $10,000 to $25,000. Beside Arizona's medians, $888,000 for a car wash loan, $1.2 million for a gas station and $2.3 million for a hotel, either band is modest against the loan it supports. The quote for a specific Arizona project comes with the scope, once the property type, county and program are known.

How much should an Arizona sponsor set aside for a study on a USDA B&I loan?

Loan Analytics' 2026 fee survey places studies written to the USDA standard under 7 CFR Part 5001 in a band that opens at $7,500 and reaches $18,750 or more; a study that has to satisfy an SBA reader and a USDA reader at once costs more because it follows the longer USDA list. Arizona's B&I awards are few and large: 7 new awards for $58.7 million in FY2025, 5 for $50.2 million in FY2024, and a peak of 18 for $106.7 million in FY2021. On projects of that scale the study fee is a minor part of the cost, and the scope reply sets the exact figure.

How long does a feasibility study take for an Arizona project?

This page publishes no fixed timeline; the schedule comes back with the scope for the specific project. Loan Analytics' 2026 fee survey lists the factors that add time: a project spread over more than one site; construction from the ground up, since revenue only starts ramping at opening; a franchised concept, because the brand's record across its system has to be reviewed; the longer USDA standard; and a rural market where comparable properties have to be visited rather than pulled from a database. In Arizona that last point bites hardest outside Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler and Tucson, in areas such as Sierra Vista-Douglas (147 loans) and Yuma (172) with fewer comparables. Sending the county, property type and program with the request lets the timeline be set at once.

Which Arizona metro areas draw the most SBA loans, and is there enough data for a study outside Phoenix?

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler dominates, with 9,960 SBA loans and $6.43 billion from FY2017 to FY2026, followed by Tucson with 1,432 loans and $829.0 million. Prescott Valley-Prescott (495 loans, $347.2 million), Lake Havasu City-Kingman (411, $317.7 million) and Flagstaff (283, $255.3 million) come next. Outside Phoenix and Tucson the charge-off rate is withheld for every area, so a study there uses the local record for loan size and lender activity, such as Prescott Valley-Prescott's $393,000 median, and builds its downside from the trade area itself rather than from a published loss rate.

What will a lender want from a feasibility study for an Arizona hotel?

Evidence that the subject can hold its own in the class that carries the most SBA dollars in Arizona: 267 loans and $653.2 million from FY2017 to FY2026 at a $2.3 million median, 180 under 7(a) and 87 under 504. The class prints a 0.77% charge-off floor but a 10.8% cancellation floor, so the lender will look for a project settled enough to close. County Business Patterns counts 1,080 hotel and motel establishments in 2018 and 1,078 in 2023, with employment down from 44,759 to 40,772, so the study must also show that its staffing plan and service level fit the labor market. The worked example linked on this page, an SBA 7(a) study of a closed motor inn reopened as an independent lodge, shows the form such a study takes.

What should a feasibility study for an Arizona gym or salon prove?

That the subject will beat its class record. Beauty salons carry the steepest charge-off floor among Arizona's tracked classes, 9.3%, on 167 loans at a $150,000 median, and fitness centers print 7.9% on 311 loans and $149.5 million; 162 of the salon loans and 285 of the fitness loans were 7(a). Both industries also added locations, salons from 1,326 to 1,711 establishments and fitness centers from 710 to 813 between 2018 and 2023. A study for either in Arizona leads with the competitors inside the trade area, the membership or client ramp and the sponsor's cash reserve, and it runs the downside case before the base case.

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Arizona feasibility study consultant: request a scope

Start the Arizona request with the project's place on this page: the asset class row it belongs to, the county or metro it sits in, the program (7(a), 504 or USDA Business and Industry) and the rough loan amount. Name the lender if one is engaged, since Arizona Capital Source, with its 1.5% floor across 720 loans, and Northeast Bank (ME), with 28.9% across 363, come to a study with different histories, and the scope is set to the questions each history raises. Send it through the scope form in this section or to Info@analytics.loan.

The answer from Loan Analytics sets out scope, fee and timing for that project alone and names the Arizona evidence the study will test it against: for a Phoenix hotel, the $653.2 million hotel book and its 0.77% floor; for a Tucson coffee shop, the 6.3% floor and coffee establishments that grew from 1,203 to 1,741; for a gas station in Prescott Valley, the $1.2 million median and a station count that did not grow; for a rural project, the B&I awards by year.

Daniel Smith, MAI

Request Scope & Timeline

Corrections

Figures on this page were checked against SBA's and USAspending's own records and corrected where they differed. Each corrected figure is marked in the text; what it counts and where it comes from:

$11.27 billion: Arizona 7(a)+504 gross dollars FY2010 to FY2025, project state; FY2026 approvals add to this total. Source: SBA loan data as of 2026-09-30.
24.0 percent: change of ownership share of Arizona 7(a), calendar 2025; calendar 2025 7(a), dollars. Source: SBA loan data as of 2026-09-30.
24.0 percent: change of ownership share of Arizona 7(a) dollars, calendar 2025; calendar 2025 7(a), dollars. Source: SBA loan data as of 2026-09-30.
$11.27 billion: Arizona 7(a)+504 gross dollars since FY2010; FY2010 to FY2025, project state. Source: SBA loan data as of 2026-09-30.

Start with the data.