Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area

Buffalo-Cheektowaga: coffee shops seventh among classes, with very small loans

Buffalo-Cheektowaga ranks 52 of 612 among areas for coffee shops; within Buffalo-Cheektowaga, the class itself ranks 7 of 39. The Buffalo-Cheektowaga tally for FY2017 to FY2026 is 28 loans and $4.5 million in gross approvals. Buffalo-Cheektowaga shows a location quotient of 0.91x and a median loan of $91,000, which is 0.38x the national median for the class. A median of $91,000 marks these as small loans.

A typical Buffalo-Cheektowaga request lands somewhere from $36,250 to $258,275, the middle half of the file. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company is listed as holder of 12 of the 28 loans, carrying $1.3 million, and Northwest Bank (PA) as holder of 5 carrying $680,000, which shows a small-ticket book spread across a few institutions. Buffalo-Cheektowaga prints no franchise share. 7(a) against 504 for Buffalo-Cheektowaga: not printed. Two banks appear, and the small size of the loans means a borrower can expect more than one institution to be familiar with the class.

A year with six and three years with none

FY2023 shows 6 loans worth $1.3 million. FY2017, FY2018 and FY2021 each show 0 loans and $0, and those are printed values. Remaining years for Buffalo-Cheektowaga are too sparse to show. Fewer than 30 loans back Buffalo-Cheektowaga, so no cancellation or charge-off rate. No county tally is printed.

The zero years deserve a clear reading. FY2017, FY2018 and FY2021 are printed zeros, so the file records no coffee shop loans in those years for Buffalo-Cheektowaga, while the years not printed simply had too few loans to show. Together with a single printed year of 6 loans, this describes a class that appears in bursts, and a plan should not assume that past lending volume says anything about next year.

Reading small loans before sizing a coffee plan

When the median is $91,000 and the top of the middle half is $258,275, a coffee shop request is closer to a fit-out loan than a real estate loan. A study should therefore itemise equipment, leasehold work and opening working capital, and show how many drinks a day at what average ticket cover rent, wages and the payment. Because the class sits 7th locally with a location quotient of 0.91x, a lender will ask what the proposed site adds, which means counting competing cafes within walking range and showing morning traffic at the door.