Liquor Store Feasibility Study in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area

Buffalo liquor stores: heavy weight, small loans

Buffalo and Cheektowaga stands 20 of 426 areas for liquor store loans, while the class itself is 3 of 39 locally. The location quotient, 2.26x, is the headline: liquor stores weigh more than twice as heavily here as in the national mix. SBA's files show 56 loans for $14.0 million, FY2017 to FY2026. Loans in the middle half cover $50,000 to $375,000 around a median of $137,500, which is 0.31x the national liquor store median and so less than a third of it.

Erie County supplies 50 loans and Niagara County 6. The franchise share is 0.00%. In the 7(a) table, Buffalo-area holders begin with Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, which shows 28 loans and $6.5 million; Northwest Bank (PA) follows with 8 loans and $1.7 million, then KeyBank National Association with 7 and $1.3 million. Loan Analytics withholds the program split. These entries show the current holder as SBA lists it and say nothing about how any of the three lenders approaches liquor stores.

Among liquor store approvals from FY2017 through FY2024, at least 13.5% were cancelled, a floor and not a forecast. Withheld by Loan Analytics for want of data are the ceiling that counts undisbursed loans and the charge-off share; a blank is not zero. The Buffalo and Cheektowaga year table lists 5 loans and $425,000 in FY2017, 8 and $3.2 million in FY2022, 9 and $2.2 million in FY2023, 14 and $3.7 million in FY2025, and 5 and $1.4 million in FY2026.

The small median sits beside a high local weight, and the yearly counts above stay between 5 and 14 loans, so a project far above the middle band needs a clear reason.

Buffalo liquor: testing the plan for a liquor store

A study here should test license transfer and state rules, inventory turns and margin by category, competition from supermarkets and large-format stores, and whether a small loan can carry both inventory and fixtures. Area membership for Buffalo and Cheektowaga is set by the county of each project in the July 2023 delineation. Unplaceable counties drop out. These figures can inform a liquor store study in Buffalo and Cheektowaga, but they promise no approval.