Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area

What SBA's own loan files show about limited-service restaurant lending in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.

Daniel Smith, MAI

Buffalo: quick-service restaurant

Buffalo drew 105 quick-service restaurant loans worth $28.6 million between FY2017 and FY2026. Buffalo places 42 of 779 nationally for the class on 105 loans; in Buffalo, the class takes 2 of 39. In Buffalo, a quotient of 1.32x makes the class far more common. Buffalo is told apart by rank and a 1.32x quotient, not by size at $140,500.

$140,500 is typical in Buffalo, in a middle half $30,000 to $350,000; against the national median that is 0.45x, well below it. Buffalo lending ran 96 through 7(a) against 9 through 504. 25.7% of 105 Buffalo loans are franchised.

Buffalo's 7(a) table, 55 loans through Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, $9.6 million; 13 through KeyBank National Association, $3.1 million; 11 through Northwest Bank (PA), $1.4 million. Buffalo's 504 table, 9 loans through Empire State Certified Development Corporation, $4.0 million. Buffalo: unnamed holders have under 5 loans. 105 loans in Buffalo, by county: Erie County, NY 90; Niagara County, NY 15.

Cancellations in Buffalo and charge-offs

In Buffalo, cancellations took 15.5% or more of Buffalo's FY2017 to FY2024 approvals. Buffalo: undisbursed-loan ceiling withheld, not zero. Buffalo withholds charge-off floor, not zero. Buffalo floors rise as loans age. Of Buffalo's 105 loans, the high year held 21 in FY2023 and the low year 6 in FY2021; FY2023 shows 21 loans and $4.2 million. Yearly loan counts for Buffalo: FY2017 15, FY2018 8, FY2019 15, FY2021 6, FY2022 10, FY2023 21. Dollars by year: FY2017 $2.9 million, FY2018 $1.9 million, FY2019 $2.9 million, FY2021 $1.6 million, FY2022 $5.0 million, FY2023 $4.2 million. Buffalo years left blank are withheld, not zero.

Buffalo: testing the project

Buffalo's quotient, 1.32x: count rivals by drive time. Across 105 loans, drive through volume in Buffalo carries $140,500. Buffalo: facing slow starts, debt service holds with $28.6 million approved. For 105 loans in Buffalo, kitchen costs outside $30,000 to $350,000 need cases. For 105 approvals in Buffalo, appraisers split business from building. Buffalo approvals ran from 6 in FY2021 to 21 in FY2023; for Buffalo, plan for slow starts.

105 loans fall in Buffalo by project county. Buffalo follows July 2023 delineation by county. Buffalo leaves out unplaceable counties. No census here: 105 loans give Buffalo a guide only.

SBA limited-service restaurant loans in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area

Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026	105
Gross dollars approved	$28.6 million
Median loan	$140,500
Middle half of loans, from	$30,000
Middle half of loans, to	$350,000
SBA 7(a) loans	96
SBA 504 loans	9
Franchise share of loans	25.7%
Rank among metro and micro areas for limited-service restaurant loans	42 of 779
Rank of limited-service restaurant among the classes in this area	2 of 39
Location quotient (share of loans against the national share)	1.32x
Median loan against the national median for the class	0.45x

Cancellation and charge-off

Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor)	15.5%
The same, counting loans still undisbursed as cancelled (a ceiling)	withheld
Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor)	withheld

Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.

SBA limited-service restaurant loans approved in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area, by fiscal year

Fiscal year	Loans	Dollars
FY2017	15	$2.9 million
FY2018	8	$1.9 million
FY2019	15	$2.9 million
FY2020	withheld	withheld
FY2021	6	$1.6 million
FY2022	10	$5.0 million
FY2023	21	$4.2 million
FY2024	withheld	withheld
FY2025	withheld	withheld
FY2026	withheld	withheld

Most active SBA lenders

SBA 504: lenders by loans approved (the current holder of each loan, as SBA reports it)
Lender	Loans	Dollars
Empire State Certified Development Corporation	9	$4.0 million

SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved (the current holder of each loan, as SBA reports it)
Lender	Loans	Dollars
Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company	55	$9.6 million
KeyBank National Association	13	$3.1 million
Northwest Bank (PA)	11	$1.4 million

Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.

Where the loans are, by county

County	Loans
Erie County, NY	90
Niagara County, NY	15

Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.

Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.

A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-15380-C35.

Related feasibility study pages

Loan Analytics prepares the feasibility study a lender reads before it commits: for a limited-service restaurant project in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area, financed under SBA 7(a), SBA 504, USDA Business and Industry or a conventional bank loan. Tell us the project and the lender's deadline, and we reply with scope, timeline and fee.

Daniel Smith, MAI

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