Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY Metro Area

165 full-service restaurant loans in Buffalo

For full-service restaurant in Buffalo, its loan size is the distinguishing trait, and we lead with it. SBA's files count 165 authorized full-service restaurant loans in Buffalo, NY from FY2017 to FY2026, $39.0 million gross. Loans center near $100,000, and half of them fall between $40,000 and $246,000. Against the class nationally, Buffalo-Cheektowaga's median is 0.36x of the national median, below it.

Where Buffalo stands, 1 of 39 in class

Counting Buffalo by program, 7(a) has 152 loans and 504 has 13, so 7(a) leads. Under 504 there are 13 loans, and 152 others use 7(a). In Buffalo-Cheektowaga, 5.5% of the 165 loans carry a franchise brand. Position in the national table: 40 of 821. Position among Buffalo classes: 1 of 39. 1.39x is the Buffalo, NY quotient: the class is denser in Buffalo than nationally, which may mean both strength and crowding. Erie County, NY holds 147 of Buffalo's loans and Niagara County, NY holds 18; no other county appears.

Who holds the 165 Buffalo loans

The busiest printed year was FY2017, 32 loans and $5.5 million; the quietest was FY2022, 7 loans and $1.8 million. Buffalo-Cheektowaga 7(a) holders, ranked by loans: 73 loans and $8.0 million at Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company; 20 loans and $5.0 million at KeyBank National Association; 12 loans and $2.0 million at Northwest Bank (PA). For Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, the $8.0 million is the amount SBA lists it as holding, now or earlier, for Buffalo, and that may differ from where the 73 began. On the 504 side the holders are Empire State Certified Development Corporation (13 loans, $11.8 million). Lenders in Buffalo saw cancellation of at least 20.2%; counting loans still undisbursed, it could be 20.2%. Charge-off rates are withheld in Buffalo: the cohort behind 165 loans is too small, which is no claim that none occurred.

What a Buffalo-Cheektowaga study must test at $100,000

The market comes first: in Buffalo, full-service restaurant sales hinge on lunch and dinner traffic, household dining spend and how often a table turns, and no count of 165 loans settles those. A sound Buffalo-Cheektowaga budget names occupancy, buildout and kitchen and bar equipment, then tests each line against Buffalo-Cheektowaga comparables. Stress Buffalo cash flow with a $40,000 loan and a $246,000 loan, then check where coverage weakens. Expect the Buffalo appraisal to separate the building, the operating business and the kitchen equipment; a study that does so already saves the borrower surprises in Buffalo. The $39.0 million Buffalo file is a yardstick, not a forecast in Buffalo, and promises no Buffalo borrower approval.

Method for Buffalo-Cheektowaga's 165 loans

By project county, Buffalo claims 165 loans. Matching Erie County, NY and its neighbors to Buffalo, NY uses names under the July 2023 delineation. Cancellation in Buffalo draws on FY2017 to FY2024 approvals; charge-offs use FY2017 to FY2021 disbursements.