Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area

Chicago against the national picture

Between FY2017 and FY2026, borrowers opening or buying table-service restaurants in Chicago were given 1,146 approvals and $692.7 million in gross dollars. The middle half of approvals sit between $92,275 and $750,000. Among all US metro and micro areas, Chicago sits at 3 of 821 for this class, while the category is 1 of 39 among the asset classes recorded locally. The median ticket in Chicago is $325,950, above the country's class median at 1.19x. A ratio of 1.15x on the location quotient leaves full-service restaurants with a larger weight in Chicago against the country as a whole.

Restaurant loans by program in Chicago

For 7(a) loans in Chicago, The Huntington National Bank is first in Chicago with 286 loans, then Byline Bank with 95 and U.S. Bank, National Association on 50. Of the 1,146 approvals, 951 are 7(a) loans and 195 are 504 approvals, which shows which SBA program sit-down restaurants projects have used around Chicago. Within 504 lending, Small Business Growth Corporation leads at 100 ($79.2 million); then SomerCor 504, Inc. (72) plus Regional Development Company (15 approvals). Franchise-affiliated borrowers make up 9.4% of full-service restaurant loans here. The Chicago names are the institutions SBA lists as holding these loans now; the table is silent on lending practice.

Where in Chicago and when

Project counties rank Cook County, IL first (689), DuPage County, IL next (94) and Lake County, IL third (91). FY2021 was the thinnest year at 70 loans and $41.4 million; FY2025 was the fullest at 158 loans and $108.3 million.

Rates that may only rise for sit-down restaurants

Each full-service restaurant loan in this table is assigned by its recorded county, which is paired by name with the 2023 areas; Chicago thus omits loans whose county cannot be assigned. Over FY2017 to FY2024, 14.8% at the least of Chicago full-service restaurant approvals were cancelled after approval, as filed, a floor, lifted to 17.4% at the ceiling if undisbursed approvals are included. In the financed cohort of FY2017 to FY2021 (427 in Chicago), 7.3% have been charged off to date, for now, a floor, as a matter of record, and 5.6% within five years of approval.

What a study of table-service restaurants in Chicago has to test

Demand is where a study begins when full-service restaurants are being weighed for Chicago: covers per day by daypart, plus weekday against weekend sales. A file of 1,146 approvals is context, rather than evidence for one location. Value questions for full-service restaurants in Chicago include value resting on one operator and equipment with little collateral value. On cost, kitchen, hood and buildout and equipment and smallwares belong in the budget for table-service restaurants, which is then read next to the $92,275 to $750,000 range lenders in Chicago have used. SBA and the lender, not the study, decide; the study's job in Chicago is to print whether full-service restaurants there can carry the debt. Debt service coverage has to hold through an opening slower than planned, because some Chicago approvals were called off and others written off.