Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ Metro Area

The nation's leading coffee shop market

SBA files rank New York-Newark 1 of 612 for coffee shop lending: 435 loans from FY2017 to FY2026, worth $128.0 million gross. Yet inside the area the class ranks only 10 of 39, and the location quotient is 0.81x, below the national share. The cell therefore shows a market with the most coffee loans of any area and a thin presence relative to its size, a result of the metro's sheer scale across every class.

Tickets are modest here: a $150,000 median, only 0.63x the class median nationally, and a middle band from $50,000 up through $350,000. Compact footprints and equipment-led budgets explain a good part of that, and the study should say so with the project's own build-out figures rather than leaning on the area average. The franchise share is 31.7%, a meaningful minority carrying the SBA franchise flag.

Programs, counties and holders

Program counts for 7(a) against 504 are withheld for this cell, so none are printed. The counties lead with New York County at 68 loans, Kings County at 63, Bergen County at 37, Queens at 32, Suffolk at 29, Nassau at 25, Ocean at 24, Westchester at 23, Monmouth at 21 and Essex at 18. The record crosses state lines, which matters for licensing, tax and lease norms in a study.

The largest count belongs to TD Bank, National Association: 119 loans at $6.6 million in total, which is a book of very small loans. Newtek Bank, National Association shows 27 worth $14.5 million, JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association 24 worth $4.2 million, The Huntington National Bank 20 worth $6.7 million and Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company 16 worth $2.2 million. These rows come from SBA files on loans each lender holds or held, so they are history and not a view of appetite.

Outcomes and the study

In the New York cohort, cancellations after approval run at least 16.6%, and the undisbursed-as-cancelled variant lands on the same 16.6%, so floor and ceiling agree. Of the 129 loans in the charge-off cohort, at least 6.2% were charged off to date; no five-year rate is published because it is withheld, and it is not zero. With cancellation that high, a lender will want the lease and permits confirmed before funds are committed.

A coffee shop study here has to test foot traffic by block, rent against ticket volume, drink-and-food mix, and debt service coverage at a modest loan size. A coffee loan joins the New York total when its county, whether New York, Kings, Bergen or Queens, is named in the July 2023 delineation; one that fails that check is in no metro, which is why 435 is a floor and not an exact count.