Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metro Area

Seattle coffee shops in SBA files

Seattle's reputation for coffee does not translate into a lead in the lending record. SBA approved 163 coffee shop loans in FY2017 to FY2026, $48.7 million gross, placing the area 7 of 612 nationally, while coffee shops are 7 of 39 classes locally. The location quotient of 1.31x does show a heavier share than the national book. King County holds 108 loans, Pierce County 37 and Snohomish County 18.

The median loan is $188,500, or 0.79x the national median, with quartiles at $79,500 and $347,000. Programs: 158 loans under 7(a) and only 5 under 504, which reflects how little owned real estate sits behind coffee shops. The franchise share is 21.5%, so independents account for most of the book, an unusual mix for a class that is franchise-heavy in many other metros.

Who holds the loans

Bank holders: KeyBank National Association (18 loans, $4.7 million); U.S. Bank, National Association (13 loans, $1.1 million); Columbia Bank (OR) (12 loans, $1.6 million); Washington Trust Bank (10 loans, $2.4 million); Banner Bank (9 loans, $3.1 million). No development company is listed. Each row is a record of loans held now or earlier, and none predicts a decision on a future request.

Outcome floors

Approvals cancelled came to at least 13.2%; no upper bound and no charge-off number are printed for Seattle coffee. Withheld here is not zero, and we do not guess a figure. With a floor above one in eight, a lender can reasonably ask for a signed lease and permits before funding.

With a franchise share of 21.5%, most Seattle coffee loans go to independents, and independents live on location, quality and loyalty rather than a brand system. A study should therefore document the owner's roasting or sourcing model, the lease terms and the daypart mix of morning, midday and evening sales, and show that the loan, near the $188,500 median, can be serviced even in a slow quarter. King County leads by a wide margin, so a Pierce or Snohomish site should explain why its demand differs.

A study should test foot traffic by block, the lease cost per square foot against ticket volume, the drink-and-food mix, labor cost, the competing roasters and chains within walking distance, and coverage at a loan near $188,500. King, Pierce and Snohomish coffee shops form the 163 because the July 2023 delineation lists all three counties; a shop in an unlisted county is in no metro, which leaves 163 as a lower bound.