Feasibility Study Data for the Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO Metro Area

Denver-Aurora-Centennial shows 9,400 SBA approvals for FY2017 to FY2026 and $5.86 billion gross, a standing of 16 of 928 on loan count. The program split is 8,645 loans under 7(a) and 755 under 504, a heavier 504 presence than the raw scale might suggest on its own. Tickets are large: $300,000 at the median, which is 1.44x the national figure, with half of loans landing between $100,000 and $744,400. Franchises make up 12.8% of loans, so independent owners carry most of the credit.

An unusual lead class

The first named class here is not a restaurant type. Liquor store leads with 435 loans, ahead of full-service restaurant at 403, limited-service restaurant at 231, fitness center at 227 and automotive mechanical repair at 206. Another 6,649 loans sit outside the named classes. A study for a liquor store in this area should look hard at licence transferability, outlet density and margin after inventory carrying cost, since that is the class the local record shows most often. By county, Denver County has 2,551 loans, Arapahoe County 2,091 and Jefferson County 1,924, so the three largest counties are close in weight and the choice of site county shapes the market being studied.

Lenders and timing

Under 7(a), SBA's records show U.S. Bank, National Association with 788 loans and $131.0 million, Wells Fargo Bank National Association with 780 loans and $282.4 million, and The Huntington National Bank with 736 loans and $213.0 million. Under 504, B:Side Capital holds 517 loans and $518.5 million, far ahead of Preferred Lending Partners with 115 loans and $141.3 million. Think of them as SBA's tally of notes each name holds or held; the tally says nothing of what any institution asks of a borrower. Volume opened at 1,067 loans and $534.4 million in FY2017, dropped to a low of 713 loans in FY2020, and peaked at 1,369 loans and $756.5 million in FY2025, with FY2026 at 876 loans and $581.3 million.

Floors and what a study must test

Of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, 10.6% or more were cancelled, rising to 11.9% if undisbursed loans are counted. Within the funded cohort of 3,940 loans approved FY2017 to FY2021, charge-offs have reached 5.5% or more, 3.1% of them within five years. Open loans can lift every one of these floors. Placement follows the project county in the July 2023 list of statistical areas, matched on county name; a loan with an unplaceable county sits in no area. A feasibility study for a project here must name the county, test demand for the business at that site, price construction or purchase honestly, run debt service coverage on conservative revenue, and support the appraisal with comparables nearby. Loan Analytics prepares such studies under the signature of Daniel Smith, MAI.