Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO Metro Area

A franchise-leaning coffee market

Nearly half of Denver's coffee shop loans carry the franchise flag: the share is 47.4%. SBA files hold 116 loans for FY2017 to FY2026, $50.5 million gross, ranking the area 15 of 612 nationally and coffee shops 10 of 39 across Denver classes. The location quotient of 0.96x is almost level with the national share. Denver County has 35 loans, Jefferson 22, Arapahoe 19, Adams 18 and Douglas 14.

Loans run larger than the class nationally. The median is $319,800, 1.33x the national median, with quartiles at $140,225 and $563,750. Programs: 107 loans carry the 7(a) label and 9 the 504 label, so owned buildings are rare. A coffee shop request near the median probably combines a lease build-out, equipment and opening inventory, and a study should itemise those pieces before comparing against the area.

Holders

On the 504 side, B:Side Capital shows 9 loans and $5.6 million. Among banks: The Huntington National Bank (9 loans, $6.1 million); Zions Bancorporation, National Association (9 loans, $1.8 million); Newtek Bank, National Association (5 loans, $2.4 million); Colorado Enterprise Fund (5 loans, $895,400). The pairing of two lenders with 9 loans each but dollar totals that differ by a wide margin shows the range of ticket sizes in one table. All entries record loans held now or before and offer no prediction of a decision.

What the record cannot tell us

Approvals cancelled reach at least 15.1% of the total through FY2024. Denver coffee prints no matching upper bound and no charge-off rate, so the loss picture is blank, not zero.

With a franchise share of 47.4%, the study must say whether the shop is a branded unit or an independent. A branded unit has a known menu, a known build-out and a franchisor's sales disclosures; an independent has none of those and must justify every assumption. The record offers 116 loans for comparison, but it cannot say which kind a given loan was, beyond the flag.

A feasibility study for a Denver coffee shop should test the morning commute pattern at the site, parking and drive-through access, rent per square foot against ticket volume, the franchise fee load if it applies, and the debt service coverage ratio on a request close to $319,800. Denver, Jefferson, Arapahoe, Adams and Douglas cafes fill the 116, each county being recognised by the July 2023 delineation; a cafe in an unrecognised county falls out of all metros, so 116 is a floor.