Auto Repair Shop Feasibility Study in the Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO Metro Area

Denver auto repair: large tickets, low cancellation

Denver's metro area has 206 auto repair approvals recorded for FY2017 to FY2026, $139.5 million gross, which places it 10 of 660 nationally and puts auto repair fifth among the 39 classes there. A location quotient of 1.27x shows over-representation. The median loan is $496,000, which is 2.11x the national class median; loans in the middle half run between $188,500 and $983,325.

Counties: Arapahoe 49, Adams 47, Jefferson 41, Denver 29, Douglas 24 and Broomfield 9. Loans spread across six counties, so a study should name the county where the shop would stand. Of the 206 loans, 175 are 7(a) and 31 are 504, and the franchise share is 11.7%.

Shared code and holders

The index code lumps truck repair shops together with car repair, so the figures blend passenger and heavy-duty work. Holders: B:Side Capital (22 loans, $21.0 million) on the 504 side; among banks Wells Fargo Bank National Association (14 loans, $8.2 million); U.S. Bank, National Association (13 loans, $4.3 million); SouthState Bank, National Association (11 loans, $5.7 million); Newtek Bank, National Association (10 loans, $1.7 million); KeyBank National Association (8 loans, $2.1 million). SBA files record who holds or held each loan; no statement about current lending practice follows from them.

Outcomes and what to test

Only 7.1% of FY2017-to-FY2024 approvals are known to have been cancelled, a floor and a modest one for this class. Loan Analytics withholds the matching ceiling and the charge-off rate for Denver auto repair, on too few loans; no number stands in their place, and absence does not mean zero. The low floor means few approved Denver shop loans are known to have been cancelled, though a floor is never a ceiling on the truth.

A study should test technician availability, bay count against lease cost, the customer base along the chosen corridor in Arapahoe, Adams or Jefferson County, equipment financing and coverage at a loan near $496,000. Because the Denver median runs so far above the national norm, the study should also explain whether the project is a standard shop or a larger operation, since a request near the upper quartile of $983,325 invites a harder look at collateral and cash flow. A shop in a county that OMB's July 2023 list does not place in the metro would not appear here, so treat 206 as a floor.