Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Oregon

Tickets that run well above the national norm

Oregon grocers borrow heavily. A median loan of $477,500 comes to 1.36x the median for grocery stores nationwide, and the middle half of approvals stretches from $155,000 to $1.3 million. The state sits 17 of 55 among states, the class holds slot 13 of 39 inside Oregon, and the 0.98x location quotient shows grocery lending in Oregon almost exactly at the national weighting. So the Oregon picture is less about how often grocers borrow than about how much. Across FY2017 to FY2026 the file holds 62 approvals totaling $60.1 million, and one year, FY2021, supplied 15 loans and $19.1 million on its own. Cancellation and loss give no separate signal against Oregon's own record.

Lenders and where the money went

Almost every Oregon grocery loan runs through the 7(a) program, with 58 loans against 4 under 504. Franchising is 4.8% of loans. The lender list shows a split: Readycap Lending, LLC holds 11 loans totaling $23.6 million, an average above any other leader, while Columbia Bank holds 9 loans for $1.6 million. KeyBank National Association adds 5 loans at $4.3 million, and U.S. Bank, National Association adds 5 more at $1.9 million. Multnomah County leads with 11 loans, followed by Lane and Tillamook counties with 5 each, and Hood River, Linn, Washington and Yamhill counties with 4 each. The loans are spread across a number of counties.

The record is mixed. Oregon grocery cancellations stand at 13.2% or higher, with a matching 13.2% ceiling. The funded cohort for FY2017 to FY2021 numbers 30 loans, with a charge-off floor of 3.3% whether counted to date or inside five years of approval. The cohort sits at the edge of what is publishable, so one loan moves the rate noticeably, and open loans may still change it.

Questions an Oregon grocery study must settle

Grocery is a thin-margin business, so the study has to prove volume. That means the trade area, household spending on food, the distance to the nearest competing supermarket, and what a conventional chain would do in response. Any seasonal assumption needs to be stated plainly. Cost testing should place the build-out, refrigeration and opening inventory against a loan near $477,500, and the larger deals toward $1.3 million need a reason. Coverage of the debt payment should be shown on a base case and on lower basket counts, and the appraiser will price the property and the operating store as separate pieces, so the study should supply sales per square foot and gross margin evidence that an appraiser can test.