Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Ohio

Ohio grocery approvals almost always fund

The Ohio grocery record stands apart for how rarely an approval falls through. Of grocery loans approved in Ohio from FY2017 to FY2024, 2.2% were cancelled, and even counting every undisbursed loan as cancelled the ceiling is only 5.9%. That floor is well below the cancellation rate for grocery stores nationally and below the Ohio figure for SBA lending of every kind, by more than our margin, which makes it the cell's distinctive measure. A borrower who wins an Ohio grocery commitment has, on this record, very good odds of closing.

The reason is probably the shape of the loans. Ohio's 177 approvals over FY2017 to FY2026 total $66.9 million, with a median of just $100,000, 0.28x the national grocery median, and half of them sit between $50,000 and $516,000. Small working capital and equipment credits close quickly and rarely need an appraisal, environmental work or a seller's cooperation. One holder dominates: The Huntington National Bank has 87 Ohio grocery loans under 7(a), worth $15.6 million, while First Financial Bank and KeyBank National Association hold 9 each and U.S. Bank, National Association 6. SBA 504 financed only 8 approvals against 169 under SBA 7(a). Franchise stores are 4.0% of the count. Ohio ranks 6 of 55 for grocery loans, the location quotient is 0.82x, and the class is 12 of 39 within the state.

Losses deserve the closer look

Funding is not the same as repayment. Ohio's 76 grocery loans paid out in FY2017 to FY2021 show 9.2% charged off at minimum, and 5.3% failed within five years of approval. Our test does not flag those floors as distinctive, but for a lender they are the number to price: small grocery credits close easily and then live on thin margins through rent, payroll and shrink. Volume has been steady, between 12 and 23 approvals a year, with 23 in FY2026 the highest.

What an Ohio grocery study must test

Franklin County holds 44 approvals, far ahead of Cuyahoga at 20 and Hamilton and Montgomery at 9 each, so central Ohio dominates the record. A feasibility study for an Ohio grocery has to test the trade area's spending on food at home against the supermarkets, discount grocers and specialty markets already serving it, and has to show the store's niche. Refrigeration, shelving and point-of-sale equipment, plus opening inventory, make up the cost case. Measure debt service coverage on gross margin after shrink and labor, which in grocery is thin. Where real estate is included, the appraisal has to value a retail building for its next user. Ohio grocers come with no coding caveat in our map and no code shared with another industry.