Grocery Store Feasibility Study in North Carolina

North Carolina grocery loans are larger than the national class and sparse

Grocery is a lightly used class in North Carolina. Within the state's mix it stands 18 of 39, the location quotient is 0.61x, and 55 loans approved over FY2017 to FY2026, worth $50.1 million, place the state 19 of 55 among states. The tickets that do appear are sizable: a median of $540,000 is 1.53x the national figure for grocery, and most requests fall from $150,000 to $1.0 million, a spread wide enough to cover a corner market and a full supermarket. Lenders who have seen few of these loans may need extra explanation of inventory, shrink and the thin margins that govern the business.

Programs, lenders and counties

SBA 7(a) carried 50 loans and SBA 504 only 5, and franchise affiliation is 7.3% of loans, which in grocery usually means a small-format banner or a convenience concept. Truist Bank is the one lender above the five-loan line, with 5 loans worth $3.2 million. Mecklenburg County has 13 loans and Wake 9, Guilford 5, and Cabarrus and Catawba 3 each. Charlotte and the Triangle account for most of the file.

Cancellations are low; the charge-off rate is withheld

Cancellation is the lowest-risk part of this file: 5.0% of approvals in FY2017 to FY2024, ceiling equal, so approvals mostly became loans. Missing from the table is a charge-off rate, because the disbursed group holds under 30 loans; the absence is a lack of data and never a zero. Annual volume has risen lately, from 1 loan in FY2022 to 8 loans and $8.0 million in FY2025 and 7 loans and $6.6 million in FY2026.

What a North Carolina grocery study must test

Grocery turns on trade-area demand, so the study should measure household spending, existing stores and their sales per square foot, and the access that makes a site convenient. Inventory and fixtures are a large part of the capital need, along with working capital for stock. Margins are thin, so coverage should be tested with a modest sales shortfall. The appraisal should address resale value to a different grocer.