Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Maine

Maine grocery: above-average concentration in a small market

Maine records 35 grocery store loans between FY2017 and FY2026, with $22.6 million approved. The state is 24 of 55, the class is 12 of 39 within Maine, and the location quotient of 1.50x shows an above-national share. The median loan of $228,000 is 0.65x the national benchmark median, and the interquartile span runs $100,000 to $853,000. These look like small independent markets, farm stands and specialty food shops more than supermarkets.

Programs and lenders

The file has 29 SBA 7(a) loans beside 6 under SBA 504, and 14.3% of borrowers are franchised, a share that suggests some convenience-grocery affiliations. Bangor Savings Bank is the lone lender at the 5-loan floor for listing, with 7 loans and $1.5 million. York County has 13 loans and Cumberland 8, with Androscoggin 3, so activity is in the south of the state. Maine grocery stores get neither a cancellation rate nor a loss rate here, because each cohort holds fewer than 30 loans. No figure appears, and neither is zero.

Volume was low in the early years, with no loans in FY2018 and 1 in FY2019, and then rose to 10 loans and $11.3 million in FY2024. The jump may reflect acquisitions of existing stores as owners retire, or a few larger projects, and the data cannot say which. FY2025 shows 6 loans and FY2026 only 1 loan, so a study should not project the FY2024 level forward, and a lender should ask what the owner would do if the strong year was a one-time event.

What a Maine grocery study must test

A study should test demand through year-round population, seasonal visitors, competing supermarkets and dollar stores, and the distance to the next full-service store, which shapes a rural market. Cost should cover refrigeration, a major expense, plus inventory and shelving. Thin grocery margins mean debt service coverage has to be run on realistic sales per square foot and shrink, and it must hold through a winter. An appraiser should value the real estate separately from the business and say what the building is worth to a non-grocer. Because the sample is small and scattered, lenders should expect more detailed documentation from a Maine grocery borrower.