Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area

Small tickets and frequent cancellation

Coffee shops and snack bars in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont borrow in small tickets and cancel often. The median loan of $224,000 is 0.93x the class's national median and the interquartile range is $100,000 to $395,500. Cancellation after approval hit at least 17.2% of the FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, a rate that deserves a lender's attention. SBA approved 143 loans from FY2017 to FY2026, worth $50.8 million. The class has a moderate local tilt, with a location quotient of 1.30x; the area is tenth of 612 (10 of 612), and the class seventh of 39 (7 of 39).

Franchising, programs and counties

Franchised shops are 35.7% of loans. SBA 7(a) has 137 loans and SBA 504 only 6. Alameda County leads with 49 loans, Contra Costa has 41, San Francisco 29, San Mateo 17 and Marin 7. Volume dipped to only 5 loans, worth $997,000, in FY2021, then rebounded to 24 in FY2025 and 20 in FY2026.

Holders

Counts are led by The Huntington National Bank (16 loans, $3.3 million) and U.S. Bank, National Association (14, $3.6 million), then Newtek Bank, National Association (9, $1.1 million), Bank of Hope (7, $4.5 million), with Wells Fargo Bank National Association (7, just $92,500) bringing up the rear. Dollars attached to that last name are tiny. Today's holder is what SBA reports, and no inference about standards is safe.

What the page leaves out

SBA's source keeps back a pair of rates for coffee shops here, and with them goes any loan-loss evidence; a rate that is kept back is simply unknown.

Testing a Bay Area coffee shop

Coffee shops here compete with national chains and dense local roasters, so a study should identify the foot traffic of the specific block and the dayparts the shop will serve. It should price rent per square foot against realistic ticket and transaction counts, show labor cost under local wage rules, and test a slow first year. If the shop is a franchise, the franchisor's fees and design standards need to be in the cost side. A high cancellation floor suggests many approvals do not close, so the study should show lease and permit status before the loan is sought. Alameda, Contra Costa and their neighbors enter the record through the July 2023 area list.