Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area

Small coffee loans across three states

Cincinnati's metro area reaches into Kentucky and Indiana, and its coffee record is notable for how little borrowers ask for. SBA lists 64 coffee shop and snack bar loans, $15.8 million in all, for FY2017 to FY2026. The median of $129,300 is 0.54x the national class median, and the lower quarter of loans stops at $32,500, with the upper quarter starting at $314,250. A location quotient of 0.86x means coffee takes a thinner share of Cincinnati's SBA loans than of the national mix.

Rank and brand share

Cincinnati places 33 of 612 on coffee volume in the whole metro and micro field; locally coffee ranks 9 of 39. Franchise share is 37.5%. The program split is withheld for Cincinnati, so no statement is made about it.

One bank and six counties

Of the 64 Cincinnati loans, 26 ($5.8 million) have The Huntington National Bank as 7(a) holder; First Commonwealth Bank has 9 ($1.7 million) and U.S. Bank, National Association has 8 ($218,000). Those are recorded holdings, not a view of anyone's lending. By county, Hamilton County, OH leads with 22 loans, then Butler County, OH at 9, trailed by Boone County, KY at 8, Warren County, OH with 7, Kenton County, KY with 6 and Clermont County, OH with 5. FY2018 had 10 loans and $2.1 million, FY2020 had 6 and $578,000, FY2021 had 5 and $641,000, FY2023 had 11 and $1.9 million, FY2024 had 8 and $2.3 million, FY2025 had 10 and $4.4 million, and FY2026 has 6 and $2.8 million. FY2017, FY2019 and FY2022 are withheld.

Floors, gaps and the county rule

Cancellation takes at least 12.5% of Cincinnati's FY2017 to FY2024 coffee approvals; Loan Analytics prints no matching ceiling and no charge-off rate here. Hamilton, Boone, Butler and the other counties behind the 64 loans were placed in Cincinnati by name against the July 2023 list, and any county that failed that match is missing.

How a Cincinnati study should proceed

Because the metro crosses three state lines, a coffee study should fix its trade area first and then look at rent, wages and permitting where the site sits. Demand has to be tested by daypart, using commuter flow and nearby offices or campuses. Equipment and fit-out are the cost lines to price at these loan sizes, so coverage should be run at a loan near the lower end of the range as well as the median. The appraisal will mostly value improvements and equipment.