Feasibility Study Data for the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area

Cincinnati stretches over Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana, and its SBA record for FY2017 to FY2026 covers 5,781 loans and $2.45 billion gross, rank 24 of 928 on loan count. Tickets are small: the median loan is $150,000, only 0.72x the national figure, and half of loans fall in a band from $50,000 to $415,000. The median and the charge-off record both differ from the national pattern by more than the margin Loan Analytics requires. Of the loans, 5,458 are 7(a) and 323 are 504, and franchises hold 12.9% of the count.

Classes, counties and state lines

Among named classes the largest is full-service restaurant at 276 loans, followed by limited-service restaurant at 208, fitness center at 115, beauty salon at 96 and hotel and motel at 80. A further 4,346 loans lie outside the named classes. Hamilton County, Ohio, has 2,443 loans, Butler County 947 and Warren County 709. Because the area crosses three states, a study must settle which state's licensing, tax and law govern the site before anything else, since Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana can differ on all three.

The lender picture

On the 7(a) side one name towers: The Huntington National Bank, 2,612 loans and $672.6 million. Next come U.S. Bank, National Association at 554 loans and $84.2 million, then First Commonwealth Bank at 173 loans and $93.3 million. In 504, Alloy Development Co., Inc. holds 264 loans and $202.2 million and Ohio Statewide Development Corporation 12 loans and $8.1 million. Holder status here is SBA's record, nothing else. It passes no judgment on any lender's practices and states nothing about what a given institution requires.

Floors and what a Cincinnati study must test

Cancelled after approval: 12.1% or more of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, 14.1% if undisbursed loans count. Charged off: 3.5% or more of the 2,478 funded FY2017 to FY2021 loans, 2.0% within five years. Each is a floor. Volume moved from 561 loans and $227.1 million in FY2017 to a high of 673 loans and $330.5 million in FY2021, then down to 447 loans and $262.0 million in FY2026, the lowest count of the span. Cincinnati is assembled county by county from the July 2023 delineation, so a Cincinnati loan with an unplaceable county is dropped. With smaller tickets and restaurants leading, a study here should test sales per seat, occupancy cost and staffing, run coverage on a weaker year, and anchor value in nearby comparables. Daniel Smith, MAI, signs the work.