Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area

Sizing up 79 Cincinnati loans

Over FY2017 to FY2026, Cincinnati borrowers in child care center took 79 approvals totaling $36.0 million. The center sits near $100,000, and half of them land between $50,000 and $643,350. Cincinnati loans run 0.22x of the national child care center median, which is below the nation.

Cincinnati, OH against the nation at 0.88x

7(a) is the larger program here: 73 loans in 7(a), 6 in 504. The 73 7(a) loans around Cincinnati, OH carry room for working capital here in Cincinnati; the 6 504 loans stay with fixed assets. 11.4% of Cincinnati loans went to franchised units. Child care center is 6 of 39 among classes inside Cincinnati and Cincinnati is 27 of 493 among areas for it. The Cincinnati, OH quotient is 0.88x, meaning the class lighter in Cincinnati than nationally across Cincinnati, which may signal room or weak demand. Hamilton County, OH heads the county list at 35 loans; Butler County, OH follows with 21, then Clermont County, OH with 8. Cincinnati is not a one-state market: IN, KY, OH all fall inside it.

Cincinnati, OH lenders, years and the $36.0 million record

Annual loans peak in FY2021 at 13 ($8.6 million) and bottom out in FY2026 at 6 ($5.8 million). A missing Cincinnati year is a disclosure limit for child care center, and never an absence of lending. SBA's 7(a) file for child care center names The Huntington National Bank with 36 loans for $8.9 million; General Electric Credit Union with 5 loans for $766,400. Treat The Huntington National Bank's $8.9 million as a ledger of holdings across Cincinnati, not a profile of how The Huntington National Bank lends. The Cincinnati cancellation floor is 20.3%, while its ceiling is withheld, not zero. Cincinnati, OH keeps its charge-off rate back: the 79 loans leave too few disbursed ones (79 loans in all) in the cohort across Cincinnati, and that is not a zero.

The Cincinnati study: demand, cost, coverage, appraisal at $643,350

Revenue around Cincinnati rests on family enrollment, the staffing ratios that licensing sets and the local share of working parents, built from the ground up, not from 79 past loans. On cost, the Cincinnati, OH study prices safety upgrades, classroom furnishings and a payroll that starts before enrollment fills against Cincinnati lease terms and Cincinnati contractors. Coverage in Cincinnati, OH is tested at $100,000, $50,000 and $643,350 alike, since the record spans that range. Cincinnati appraisers will value the licensed building, classroom fit-out and enrollment goodwill one at a time, so the Cincinnati study should do the same. The $36.0 million Cincinnati, OH record is a yardstick for Cincinnati, not a forecast, and promises no Cincinnati borrower approval.

Limits behind 79 Cincinnati loans

Cincinnati gets its 79 loans through each project's county. Matching Hamilton County, OH and its neighbors to Cincinnati, OH uses names under the July 2023 delineation. Home-based and center-based care share a code, so Cincinnati, OH's 79 loans cannot show centers alone. Cincinnati cancellation covers FY2017 to FY2024 approvals around Cincinnati; charge-offs (median $100,000) cover FY2017 to FY2021 disbursements.