Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN Metro Area

A franchise market with a clean record so far

Quick-service restaurants in Cincinnati are overwhelmingly franchised: 61.5% of the 208 loans SBA approved between FY2017 and FY2026, worth $92.5 million. Nationally the area is 23 of 779 for limited-service restaurants, with the class second (2 of 39) at home. A 1.08x location quotient and a $324,500 median, 1.04x the class's national median, make this a close copy of the national picture. Half of loans fall from $50,000 to $500,000.

The loss record

Cincinnati's signature figure is a charge-off floor of 0.00%, printed both for losses so far and for losses inside five years, across 79 funded loans of the FY2017 to FY2021 vintage. A floor is not a promise: open loans can still fail, and 79 is a small group. Cancellation reaches at least 9.5% among the FY2017 to FY2024 approvals and as much as 14.3% once undisbursed loans are tallied as cancelled, so some approvals may have been waiting to disburse.

Sizes, programs and counties

SBA 7(a) accounts for 201 loans and SBA 504 for 7. Hamilton County in Ohio leads with 81 loans, Butler has 42, Warren 24, Clermont 21, Kenton County in Kentucky 16, Boone 11 and Campbell 5. Volume rose from 10 loans in FY2017 to 31 in FY2023, then fell to 14 in FY2026, with FY2025 reaching $14.2 million.

Holders SBA lists

The Huntington National Bank holds 66 loans worth $21.5 million, almost twice the number held by First Commonwealth Bank, which has 31 and $9.1 million. KeyBank National Association holds 11, Peoples Bank (OH) 9 and U.S. Bank, National Association 9, the last for only $718,000. SBA shows current holders; the table lists who holds the loans today and passes no judgment on any bank. No development company appears.

Testing a Cincinnati quick-service unit

A franchise unit's study should begin from the franchisor's required investment and disclosed sales, and then ask whether this trade area can support the unit given existing branded outlets. Occupancy cost, drive-through design and traffic counts matter more than a metro average. Debt service coverage needs a case with a slower ramp and the franchisor's royalties and advertising contributions already deducted. The clean charge-off figure should not be allowed to soften the analysis. Cincinnati figures exclude loans whose county has no place in the July 2023 area list.