Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

San Diego: coffee shop and snack bar

For San Diego, SBA's files hold 114 coffee shop and snack bar approvals worth $30.4 million over FY2017 to FY2026. San Diego holds spot 16 of 612 among metro areas on 114 loans; in San Diego, the class holds 7 of 39. The 1.14x quotient shows a somewhat heavier local concentration than the national one. The median loan of $200,000 sits at 0.83x of the class median nationally, so loans here run smaller than elsewhere.

$200,000 in San Diego, below the national median (0.83x), is its median; San Diego's middle half spans $50,000 to $350,525. Of 7(a) and 504, San Diego withholds the split, not zero. 32.5% of the 114 loans went to franchisees.

San Diego's 7(a) table, 18 loans held by U.S. Bank, National Association, $592,000; 13 held by The Huntington National Bank, $2.5 million; 13 held by CDC Small Business Finance Corp., $2.3 million; 9 held by Wells Fargo Bank National Association, $2.0 million; 7 held by Banner Bank, $1.9 million. San Diego leaves holders under 5 loans unnamed. San Diego counties, of 114 loans: San Diego County, CA 114.

Outcome floors in San Diego and approvals

15.9% or more of San Diego approvals were cancelled by FY2024 (15.9% with undisbursed loans). San Diego charge-off floor: withheld, not zero. San Diego: the cohort is too small. San Diego open loans may raise floors. San Diego, moving from 8 loans and $858,000 in FY2017, ended on 9 loans and $2.7 million in FY2026; the peak was 23 loans and $6.3 million in FY2025, the trough 8 in FY2017. Loans by year in San Diego: FY2017 8, FY2018 18, FY2019 12, FY2022 11, FY2023 15, FY2024 9, FY2025 23, FY2026 9. Dollars per year: FY2017 $858,000, FY2018 $3.4 million, FY2019 $2.4 million, FY2022 $4.2 million, FY2023 $5.1 million, FY2024 $2.0 million, FY2025 $6.3 million, FY2026 $2.7 million. Missing San Diego years are withheld, not zero.

San Diego: what a feasibility study must prove

A San Diego coffee shop study should test lease cost against sales, daily ticket counts, equipment cost and staffed hours. Debt service should be sized against a loan near the $200,000 median and then tested across the middle half, $50,000 to $350,525. Competing shops along the commuter routes the site depends on should be counted, and the appraiser's view of lease and traffic should be tied to the income case. Annual approvals moved from 8 in FY2017 to 23 in FY2025, which shows how lumpy the record is, so no single year should set the base case.

San Diego counts 114 loans by project county, and all 114 sit in San Diego County. County lines follow the July 2023 delineation, and any loan with an unplaceable county drops out. The 114 loans are a rough guide to San Diego, not a census.