Restaurant Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

What SBA's own loan files show about full-service restaurant lending in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.

San Diego: full-service restaurant

345 full-service restaurant loans, worth $192.1 million, were approved in San Diego, FY2017 to FY2026. Among metro areas San Diego stands 21 of 821 on 345 loans, and in San Diego the class stands 1 of 39. San Diego's quotient of 0.89x makes the class less common. $301,300 tracks San Diego's parents; ranks and the 0.89x quotient do the distinguishing.

$301,300 in San Diego runs a little above the national median (1.10x) across 345 loans. Half the loans in San Diego fall between $150,000 and $700,000. The split is 315 under 7(a) and 30 under 504, the routes San Diego peers took. Franchisees hold 5.8% of San Diego's 345 loans.

San Diego's 7(a) table, 32 loans with U.S. Bank, National Association, $9.1 million; 18 with Shinhan Bank America, $10.3 million; 16 with Newtek Bank, National Association, $4.1 million; 16 with CDC Small Business Finance Corp., $3.8 million; 15 with Celtic Bank Corporation, $9.2 million. San Diego's 504 table, 12 loans with CDC Small Business Finance Corp., $8.3 million; 8 with California Statewide Certified Development Corporation, $5.6 million; 5 with Southland Economic Development Corporation, $3.4 million. San Diego: holders under 5 loans stay unnamed. San Diego by county, 345 loans: San Diego County, CA 345.

How San Diego loans fared

Of San Diego's FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, at least 13.1% were cancelled after approval; 13.1% if undisbursed loans count. Of 146 loans disbursed from FY2017 to FY2021, 8.9% or more are charged off. In San Diego, five-year charge-offs: withheld, not zero. San Diego open loans can still raise floors. San Diego's yearly count peaked at 43 loans and $13.3 million in FY2018; its low was 21 in FY2020; FY2026 shows 40 loans and $32.4 million. By year, San Diego counts: FY2017 42, FY2018 43, FY2019 43, FY2020 21, FY2021 21, FY2022 26, FY2023 36, FY2024 35, FY2025 38, FY2026 40. Gross dollars by year: FY2017 $21.2 million, FY2018 $13.3 million, FY2019 $23.4 million, FY2020 $7.2 million, FY2021 $17.8 million, FY2022 $18.2 million, FY2023 $17.4 million, FY2024 $17.9 million, FY2025 $23.5 million, FY2026 $32.4 million.

San Diego: what a study must test

San Diego: facing slow months, debt service holds with $192.1 million approved. For 345 loans in San Diego, ventilation costs outside $150,000 to $700,000 need cases. For 345 approvals in San Diego, appraisers split concept from building. San Diego approvals ran from 21 in FY2020 to 43 in FY2018; for San Diego, plan for stalled years. San Diego's quotient, 0.89x: count rivals by cuisine. Across 345 loans, evening cover counts in San Diego carries $301,300.

San Diego placed 345 loans by project county. San Diego uses the July 2023 delineation by name. San Diego omits loans from unmatched counties. These 345 loans guide a view of San Diego; they are no census.

SBA full-service restaurant loans in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026345
Gross dollars approved$192.1 million
Median loan$301,300
Middle half of loans, from$150,000
Middle half of loans, to$700,000
SBA 7(a) loans315
SBA 504 loans30
Franchise share of loans5.8%
Rank among metro and micro areas for full-service restaurant loans21 of 821
Rank of full-service restaurant among the classes in this area1 of 39
Location quotient (share of loans against the national share)0.89x
Median loan against the national median for the class1.10x

Cancellation and charge-off

Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor)13.1%
The same, counting loans still undisbursed as cancelled (a ceiling)13.1%
Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor)8.9%
Charged off within five years of approvalwithheld
Loans in that cohort146

Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.

SBA full-service restaurant loans approved in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area, by fiscal year

01020304050FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026Loans, FY2017: 42Loans, FY2018: 43Loans, FY2019: 43Loans, FY2020: 21Loans, FY2021: 21Loans, FY2022: 26Loans, FY2023: 36Loans, FY2024: 35Loans, FY2025: 38Loans, FY2026: 40
Fiscal yearLoansDollars
FY201742$21.2 million
FY201843$13.3 million
FY201943$23.4 million
FY202021$7.2 million
FY202121$17.8 million
FY202226$18.2 million
FY202336$17.4 million
FY202435$17.9 million
FY202538$23.5 million
FY202640$32.4 million

Most active SBA lenders

SBA 504: lenders by loans approved (the current holder of each loan, as SBA reports it)
LenderLoansDollars
CDC Small Business Finance Corp.12$8.3 million
California Statewide Certified Development Corporation8$5.6 million
Southland Economic Development Corporation5$3.4 million
SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved (the current holder of each loan, as SBA reports it)
LenderLoansDollars
U.S. Bank, National Association32$9.1 million
Shinhan Bank America18$10.3 million
Newtek Bank, National Association16$4.1 million
CDC Small Business Finance Corp.16$3.8 million
Celtic Bank Corporation15$9.2 million

Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.

Where the loans are, by county

CountyLoans
San Diego County, CA345

Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.

Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.

A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-41740-C34.

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