Restaurant Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area
What SBA's own loan files show about full-service restaurant lending in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.
San Diego: full-service restaurant
345 full-service restaurant loans, worth $192.1 million, were approved in San Diego, FY2017 to FY2026. Among metro areas San Diego stands 21 of 821 on 345 loans, and in San Diego the class stands 1 of 39. San Diego's quotient of 0.89x makes the class less common. $301,300 tracks San Diego's parents; ranks and the 0.89x quotient do the distinguishing.
$301,300 in San Diego runs a little above the national median (1.10x) across 345 loans. Half the loans in San Diego fall between $150,000 and $700,000. The split is 315 under 7(a) and 30 under 504, the routes San Diego peers took. Franchisees hold 5.8% of San Diego's 345 loans.
San Diego's 7(a) table, 32 loans with U.S. Bank, National Association, $9.1 million; 18 with Shinhan Bank America, $10.3 million; 16 with Newtek Bank, National Association, $4.1 million; 16 with CDC Small Business Finance Corp., $3.8 million; 15 with Celtic Bank Corporation, $9.2 million. San Diego's 504 table, 12 loans with CDC Small Business Finance Corp., $8.3 million; 8 with California Statewide Certified Development Corporation, $5.6 million; 5 with Southland Economic Development Corporation, $3.4 million. San Diego: holders under 5 loans stay unnamed. San Diego by county, 345 loans: San Diego County, CA 345.
How San Diego loans fared
Of San Diego's FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, at least 13.1% were cancelled after approval; 13.1% if undisbursed loans count. Of 146 loans disbursed from FY2017 to FY2021, 8.9% or more are charged off. In San Diego, five-year charge-offs: withheld, not zero. San Diego open loans can still raise floors. San Diego's yearly count peaked at 43 loans and $13.3 million in FY2018; its low was 21 in FY2020; FY2026 shows 40 loans and $32.4 million. By year, San Diego counts: FY2017 42, FY2018 43, FY2019 43, FY2020 21, FY2021 21, FY2022 26, FY2023 36, FY2024 35, FY2025 38, FY2026 40. Gross dollars by year: FY2017 $21.2 million, FY2018 $13.3 million, FY2019 $23.4 million, FY2020 $7.2 million, FY2021 $17.8 million, FY2022 $18.2 million, FY2023 $17.4 million, FY2024 $17.9 million, FY2025 $23.5 million, FY2026 $32.4 million.
San Diego: what a study must test
San Diego: facing slow months, debt service holds with $192.1 million approved. For 345 loans in San Diego, ventilation costs outside $150,000 to $700,000 need cases. For 345 approvals in San Diego, appraisers split concept from building. San Diego approvals ran from 21 in FY2020 to 43 in FY2018; for San Diego, plan for stalled years. San Diego's quotient, 0.89x: count rivals by cuisine. Across 345 loans, evening cover counts in San Diego carries $301,300.
San Diego placed 345 loans by project county. San Diego uses the July 2023 delineation by name. San Diego omits loans from unmatched counties. These 345 loans guide a view of San Diego; they are no census.
SBA full-service restaurant loans in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area
| Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026 | 345 |
|---|---|
| Gross dollars approved | $192.1 million |
| Median loan | $301,300 |
| Middle half of loans, from | $150,000 |
| Middle half of loans, to | $700,000 |
| SBA 7(a) loans | 315 |
| SBA 504 loans | 30 |
| Franchise share of loans | 5.8% |
| Rank among metro and micro areas for full-service restaurant loans | 21 of 821 |
| Rank of full-service restaurant among the classes in this area | 1 of 39 |
| Location quotient (share of loans against the national share) | 0.89x |
| Median loan against the national median for the class | 1.10x |
Cancellation and charge-off
| Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor) | 13.1% |
|---|---|
| The same, counting loans still undisbursed as cancelled (a ceiling) | 13.1% |
| Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor) | 8.9% |
| Charged off within five years of approval | withheld |
| Loans in that cohort | 146 |
Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.
SBA full-service restaurant loans approved in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area, by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 42 | $21.2 million |
| FY2018 | 43 | $13.3 million |
| FY2019 | 43 | $23.4 million |
| FY2020 | 21 | $7.2 million |
| FY2021 | 21 | $17.8 million |
| FY2022 | 26 | $18.2 million |
| FY2023 | 36 | $17.4 million |
| FY2024 | 35 | $17.9 million |
| FY2025 | 38 | $23.5 million |
| FY2026 | 40 | $32.4 million |
Most active SBA lenders
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| CDC Small Business Finance Corp. | 12 | $8.3 million |
| California Statewide Certified Development Corporation | 8 | $5.6 million |
| Southland Economic Development Corporation | 5 | $3.4 million |
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Bank, National Association | 32 | $9.1 million |
| Shinhan Bank America | 18 | $10.3 million |
| Newtek Bank, National Association | 16 | $4.1 million |
| CDC Small Business Finance Corp. | 16 | $3.8 million |
| Celtic Bank Corporation | 15 | $9.2 million |
Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.
Where the loans are, by county
| County | Loans |
|---|---|
| San Diego County, CA | 345 |
Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.
Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.
A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.
Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-41740-C34.
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