Auto Repair Shop Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

One county, one market

Every one of the 145 auto repair loans in the San Diego area comes from San Diego County, which makes metro and county one and the same. Approvals from FY2017 through FY2026 add up to $88.8 million gross. The area ranks 17 of 660 nationally for the class and auto repair is 5 of 39 among its classes; the location quotient, 1.08x, shows a share close to the national one. The median loan is $435,000, 1.85x the national median, and quartiles stand at $150,000 and $873,000.

Program mix: 125 loans are 7(a) and 20 are 504. Franchise share: 5.5%, a small part of the loans. The index lists truck repair beside car repair, so the record blends the two, and a San Diego study should say whether the project serves passenger cars, trucks or both.

Holders

On the 504 side the one development company shown is California Statewide Certified Development Corporation: 6 loans, $4.8 million. Banks: U.S. Bank, National Association (16 loans, $8.7 million); Wells Fargo Bank National Association ($5.6 million across 9 loans); Enterprise Bank & Trust (6 loans, $6.3 million); Sunflower Bank National Association (6 loans, $5.8 million); Live Oak Banking Company (5 loans, $10.3 million). Live Oak's few loans carry a large dollar total, so its book here consists of bigger tickets. Treat the table as history and not as a statement of what any lender accepts.

What happens after approval

Cancellation after approval has a floor of 12.8%, and treating undisbursed loans as cancelled changes nothing, since the ceiling is also 12.8%; few approvals remain open. A cohort of 61 loans shows an 8.2% charge-off floor so far. Loan Analytics does not print the five-year charge-off rate for San Diego because the cohort is too small; a blank is not a zero.

A single-county record leaves no submarket comparison, which puts weight on the study: the shop's address, traffic, nearby dealerships and competing shops carry the whole argument. The charge-off floor of 8.2% on 61 loans is the figure to hold against any projection of repeat customers, and the gap between 125 loans under 7(a) and 20 under 504 shows 7(a) loans outnumbering 504 loans by a wide margin in the record.

A study should test technician supply, the cost of a San Diego lease or purchase, bay count against volume, parts and equipment cost, and coverage at a loan near $435,000. With San Diego County as the sole county on all 145 loans, the July 2023 delineation poses no real puzzle here; only a loan with an unreadable county would be lost to the metro, and 145 stays a minimum.