Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area

What SBA's own loan files show about coffee shop and snack bar lending in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.

Daniel Smith, MAI

Phoenix: coffee shop and snack bar

Phoenix approved coffee shop and snack bar loans: 147 in FY2017 to FY2026, worth $72.5 million. Phoenix ranks 9 of 612 for the class on 147 loans among metro areas; in Phoenix, the class ranks 8 of 39. Phoenix's location quotient reads 1.15x on 147 loans: a somewhat heavier concentration. In Phoenix, ranks and the 1.15x quotient, from 147 loans, distinguish the class; Phoenix size is 1.54x the national median.

$369,000 marks the median of 147 loans, well above the national figure (1.54x), and $164,100 to $571,400 bounds Phoenix's middle half. Of 147 loans in Phoenix, 138 used 7(a) and 9 used 504. 59.2% is the franchise share of 147 loans; the rest are independents.

Phoenix's 7(a) table, 19 loans at The Huntington National Bank, $7.0 million; 11 at Midwest Regional Bank, $4.4 million; 7 at JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, $1.3 million; 6 at Bank Five Nine, $10.4 million; 5 at FWBank, $3.1 million. Phoenix: holders under 5 loans go unnamed.

The Phoenix loans' fate

Of 147 loans, Phoenix withholds cancellations, not zero. Phoenix charge-offs: too few, not zero. Phoenix floors may rise with open loans. Phoenix's yearly count peaked at 13 loans and $7.2 million in FY2021; its low was 7 in FY2019; FY2023 shows 12 loans and $7.0 million. Phoenix loans per year: FY2017 10, FY2019 7, FY2020 11, FY2021 13, FY2023 12. Yearly dollars: FY2017 $3.0 million, FY2019 $2.1 million, FY2020 $4.6 million, FY2021 $7.2 million, FY2023 $7.0 million. Withheld Phoenix years are not zero.

Phoenix: the study's tests

Across 147 loans, morning ticket counts in Phoenix carries $369,000. Phoenix: facing weak afternoons, debt service holds with $72.5 million approved. For 147 loans in Phoenix, espresso costs outside $164,100 to $571,400 need cases. For 147 approvals in Phoenix, appraisers weigh lease and traffic. Phoenix approvals ran from 7 in FY2019 to 13 in FY2021; for Phoenix, plan for weak afternoons. Phoenix's quotient, 1.15x: count rivals by commuter route.

Phoenix's 147 loans are placed by project county. Phoenix follows the July 2023 delineation. Phoenix drops unplaceable counties from $72.5 million. Treat 147 loans as a guide to Phoenix, not a census.

SBA coffee shop and snack bar loans in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area

Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026	147
Gross dollars approved	$72.5 million
Median loan	$369,000
Middle half of loans, from	$164,100
Middle half of loans, to	$571,400
SBA 7(a) loans	138
SBA 504 loans	9
Franchise share of loans	59.2%
Rank among metro and micro areas for coffee shop and snack bar loans	9 of 612
Rank of coffee shop and snack bar among the classes in this area	8 of 39
Location quotient (share of loans against the national share)	1.15x
Median loan against the national median for the class	1.54x

Cancellation and charge-off

Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor)	withheld
Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor)	withheld

Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.

SBA coffee shop and snack bar loans approved in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area, by fiscal year

Fiscal year	Loans	Dollars
FY2017	10	$3.0 million
FY2018	withheld	withheld
FY2019	7	$2.1 million
FY2020	11	$4.6 million
FY2021	13	$7.2 million
FY2022	withheld	withheld
FY2023	12	$7.0 million
FY2024	withheld	withheld
FY2025	withheld	withheld
FY2026	withheld	withheld

Most active SBA lenders

SBA 7(a): lenders by loans approved (the current holder of each loan, as SBA reports it)
Lender	Loans	Dollars
The Huntington National Bank	19	$7.0 million
Midwest Regional Bank	11	$4.4 million
JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association	7	$1.3 million
Bank Five Nine	6	$10.4 million
FWBank	5	$3.1 million

Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.

Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.

A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-38060-C39.

Related feasibility study pages

Loan Analytics prepares the feasibility study a lender reads before it commits: for a coffee shop and snack bar project in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area, financed under SBA 7(a), SBA 504, USDA Business and Industry or a conventional bank loan. Tell us the project and the lender's deadline, and we reply with scope, timeline and fee.

Daniel Smith, MAI

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