Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area

Quick service in the Phoenix area

Counter-service and drive-through concepts in Phoenix account for 261 SBA loans between FY2017 and FY2026, worth $166.4 million, second of 39 classes locally. The area stands 17 of 779 for the class, though a location quotient of 0.79x says these restaurants fill less of local lending than they do across the country. The median loan is $450,000, 1.45x the class midpoint nationwide, with quartiles of $267,000 and $820,000. Franchised concepts account for 59.8% of loans.

A program split tilted toward 504

Counting 261 loans, 201 sit on 7(a) and 60 on 504, a high 504 count for a class that usually borrows for equipment and build-out. The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation holds 30 504 loans worth $34.4 million and CDC Small Business Finance Corp. holds 15 worth $12.1 million. On the 7(a) side the counts are small: Live Oak Banking Company 11 loans ($13.6 million), U.S. Bank, National Association 10 ($2.7 million), Midwest Regional Bank 9 ($2.8 million), Stearns Bank National Association 8 ($2.1 million) and Arizona Capital Source 7 ($1.5 million). Holder records only, with no judgement about any institution.

Cancellation bounds

This cell is one of the few that print both ends of the cancellation range. Counting only loans cancelled after approval gives 12.8% of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, a floor. Counting loans that were still undisbursed as cancelled too, the figure reaches 16.0%, a ceiling. The truth for a loan approved today lies between the two. The charge-off rate does not appear, as too few loans support it, and absent is not zero. Maricopa County has 243 loans and Pinal County 18, so the cell is almost entirely a Maricopa story; a borrower outside that county should check how far the figures reach. Yearly volume peaked at 45 loans in FY2025, against 15 in FY2019 and FY2020, which shows how much the pace of approvals has moved.

Boundary and the study

Phoenix counts a loan only if the county of the project is found on the 2023 metro map under the same name, which excludes the rest. Drive-through concepts need traffic and visibility tested at the pad site, the franchisor's disclosed sales set against this trade area, construction cost where a building is bought or built, equipment cost, debt service coverage at the loan sizes above, and an appraisal of a single-purpose property.