Liquor Store Feasibility Study in the Rochester, NY Metro Area

Rochester liquor stores: cancellations and size set the cell apart

Rochester ranks 22 of 426 among areas for liquor store loans, and liquor store ranks 8 of 39 in Rochester itself. The location quotient of 1.34x gives liquor stores a heavier local weight than the national one. SBA's files list 42 loans for $10.1 million, FY2017 to FY2026. The Rochester median of $95,400 equals 0.21x of the national liquor store median; ordinary liquor store loans run $31,250 to $281,500. Two metrics are distinctive here: that median, about a fifth of the national figure, and the cancellation floor below.

All 42 loans are SBA 7(a); the SBA 504 count reads 0. Franchise brands show on 0.00% of the Rochester liquor store loans. Among 7(a) holders, SBA names Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company, 16 loans and $2.2 million in all, Genesee Regional Bank, 6 loans and $3.6 million in all, ESL FCU, 6 loans and $657,000 in all, and KeyBank National Association, 5 loans and $342,900 in all. Read the Rochester lender lines as whichever lender holds the paper, leaving Genesee Regional Bank’s practices unassessed. Holdings, not standards. Of liquor store approvals in Rochester, the cohorts FY2017 to FY2024 saw 27.8% at minimum cancelled, so the real share could be higher. That floor is high for a store class, and a study should ask what drove it.

For liquor store loans in Rochester, nothing prints for the charge-off share together with the ceiling for undisbursed loans with too little data behind it; no zero is implied. FY2017 (7 loans, $423,000); FY2019 (6 loans, $3.3 million); FY2021 (7 loans, $1.4 million); and FY2023 (5 loans, $385,000). All of the printed loans sit in Monroe County, which supplies 35.

The cancellation floor is the second distinctive metric here; since it is only a floor, the true share could be higher, and a study should treat timing and closing risk as live issues.

What a Rochester store study tests

A study should test the state's license rules and transfer timing, inventory turns, margin by category, competition from grocery and big-box sellers, and a payment that survives a slow season. For Rochester, each liquor store loan is placed via a project county lookup in the July 2023 delineation. No match, no inclusion. We offer this record alongside a liquor store venture within Rochester, carrying Daniel Smith, MAI, as byline; no outcome is promised.