Grocery Store Feasibility Study in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area

Small corner stores across four jurisdictions

The Washington area spreads over the District, Maryland, Virginia and West Virginia, and its grocery record is defined by modesty. Grocery lending here totals 70 loans and $28.4 million, with a location quotient of 1.02x, so the class is about as common as it is nationally. Grocery ranks 12 of 39 among the area's classes, while the area is 9 of 412 on grocery loans across all metro and micro areas. The distinctive number is the median: $117,500, which is 0.33x the national grocery median. The typical loan here is far smaller than the typical grocery loan across the country.

Who lends and where

Half the loans sit between $40,000 and $398,250. The program counts are 65 for 7(a) and 5 for 504, with no loan flagged as a franchise (0.00%), so independent operators carry the class. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company stands out on the 7(a) holder list with 25 loans worth $1.6 million, a modest average that matches the small tickets; TD Bank, National Association follows with 8 loans worth $425,000. Those figures are SBA's record of loans held, with no inference about either bank's appetite. Geographically the volume is split: Prince George's County, MD has 12 loans, the District of Columbia 11, Alexandria city, VA and Fairfax County, VA 8 each, Montgomery County, MD 7 and Frederick County, MD 6.

Cancellation reached at least 19.6% of the grocery loans approved over FY2017 to FY2024, and the stricter count that adds undisbursed loans also lands on 19.6%. Because that is only a minimum, the true share of cancelled loans could be higher. The charge-off rate is withheld. Volume was 6 loans in FY2017 ($2.1 million), 7 in FY2019 ($1.8 million), 7 in FY2020 ($3.5 million), 6 in FY2021 ($2.4 million), a high of 14 in FY2023 ($6.5 million), 8 in FY2024 ($3.4 million) and then 5 loans for $3.1 million in FY2025 before 9 loans, $5.0 million, in FY2026. FY2018 and FY2022 are held back as too thin, and held back does not mean none. Because the metro spans four jurisdictions, each loan's county on the July 2023 map decides its place here.

Testing a grocery project in the capital region

A study for a grocery store in this area has to start with the catchment, since a store sized to the typical loan depends on the homes reachable on foot or by a brief drive from its door. It must test competing supermarkets, the weekly sales its floor area must produce, the cost of refrigeration and fit-out, and how well earnings cover debt service if the first year is slow. Because cancellation took at least 19.6% of approvals, the study should show how land or lease, permits and equipment timing were secured. An appraiser will price the store as a working business, which means the sales forecast needs evidence behind it. History here is context, not a promise.