Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Maryland

Much smaller than grocery elsewhere

Maryland grocery loans are strikingly small. The median loan of $110,000 is only 0.31x the national class median, and the central loans sit between $26,250 and $337,500. Across FY2017 to FY2026 the file counts 50 approvals totaling $24.0 million. Maryland ranks 20 of 55 on volume, the class is 13 of 39 among state asset types, and the 0.77x location quotient shows grocery as a smaller part of Maryland lending than of the national book. The cell has no distinctive metric; the median and the cancellation record are simply the figures to read first.

Who finances it

Almost every loan is a 7(a), with 48 against 2 under 504, and franchised stores do not appear. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company has 17 loans for $995,000, a small average, and TD Bank, National Association appears with 7 loans for $320,000. Prince Georges County leads with 12 loans, Baltimore City has 8, Montgomery County 7, Frederick County 6 and Baltimore County 5. Yearly counts are lumpy: 2 loans in FY2020 and FY2022, then 8 in FY2023 and FY2025, the latter with $8.1 million, which suggests a few larger deals recently.

More than a fifth of the approvals fell through. Cancellation reaches at least 21.1% of the earlier approvals, and 23.7% should every loan still waiting for its first draw collapse. Loan Analytics prints no Maryland charge-off rate, since Loan Analytics will not present a rate from a cohort under 30 loans, and that silence is no certificate of safety.

What the study should prove

A Maryland grocery study should begin by explaining the cancellation record, since a borrower who is approved and does not close has usually met a problem with the lease, the license or the inventory plan. The study should settle those items early. After that, it should measure the shopper base around the site, the distance to the nearest supermarket, and the share of food spending the store can win, in Prince Georges County, Baltimore or the suburbs alike. Costs should be set against the $110,000 median, with refrigeration called out. Coverage of the debt payment should hold on a lower basket count, and because the appraisal will lean on cash flow in a small store, the study should document sales and margin with unusual care.