Child Care Center Feasibility Study in the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metro Area

Child care in the capital region, jurisdiction by jurisdiction

The Washington-Arlington-Alexandria area is spread across the District of Columbia, Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia, and its child care loans spread with it: the District itself, Prince George's County and Fairfax County each account for 35 loans, Montgomery County in Maryland for 31, Loudoun for 28, Prince William for 19, the city of Alexandria for 16, Frederick for 11, Arlington for 10 and Stafford for 6. SBA approved 244 loans for child care centers between FY2017 and FY2026, worth $213.9 million, which makes the area 9 of 493 nationally while the class is 4 of 39 in the area.

Ordinary sizes, unusual attrition

The median loan of $457,700 is 1.01x the class's national median, so this is not a market of unusually large or small tickets, and the location quotient of 1.48x shows only a moderate tilt toward the class. What sets the page apart is cancellation: cancellation after approval ran to at least 22.0% across FY2017 to FY2024, among the highest floors in this lane. SBA's source holds back two companion measures here, the all-in cancellation ceiling and the charge-off rate, so no figure appears for either.

Program mix, franchising and timing

Half the loans fall inside a band from $100,000 to $1.1 million. SBA 7(a) has 213 loans and SBA 504 has 31, and franchised centers are 34.0% of loans. Annual approvals hovered near 20 through FY2023 (19 in FY2019, 22 in FY2023), then stepped up to 33 in FY2024 and 32 in FY2025.

Holders in SBA's records

Business Finance Group, Inc. is the one development company listed, with 23 504 loans and $38.6 million. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company stands out among 7(a) holders with 53 loans but only $10.4 million, while Live Oak Banking Company has 13 loans worth $33.6 million, a far larger average. TD Bank, National Association holds 16, Atlantic Union Bank 9 and Celtic Bank Corporation 7. These are the holders SBA shows now, and the figures leave open how any of them reads a child care proposal.

What an applicant's study must settle

A study here should expect close scrutiny at the stage between approval and closing, since so many approvals do not complete. That means documenting lease or purchase terms, licensing and zoning for a center of the planned capacity, and the buildout schedule before anything else. Demand has to be tested neighborhood by neighborhood, because families in the District, the Maryland suburbs and northern Virginia face different supply, and the study should name which licensing regime governs the site. Tuition, staff ratios and debt service should be shown at a slower enrollment ramp as well as at capacity. Since in-home child care shares the center code, some loans here may not be centers. Counties are placed as of July 2023.