Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Rhode Island

A class concentrated in one county

Grocery lending in Rhode Island is unusually concentrated. Of the 31 grocery loans in the FY2017 to FY2026 files, Providence County accounts for 28, with Kent at 2 and Washington at 1. Together they total $13.7 million gross. A location quotient of 1.64x is the headline: grocers claim a far bigger slice of Rhode Island lending than of lending nationwide, and the class places 9 of 39 in Rhode Island's own class ranking, even though the state ranks 27 of 55 on raw loan count. A small state with a dense urban core, and a high share of independent food retail, produces this shape.

Loan size, programs and lenders

The $187,000 median is 0.53x the figure for grocers nationally; half the loans lie between $62,500 and $615,000. That points to neighborhood markets and conversions more than large supermarkets. Under SBA 7(a) sit 27 loans, under SBA 504 only 4, and franchises are absent at 0.00%. Metro City Bank leads the 7(a) table with 6 loans and $3.9 million. Yearly counts rise and fall sharply: 5 in FY2021, 6 in FY2022, 6 in FY2025 and none in FY2019 or FY2020. A lender should read this as a market served by a few repeat lenders and a few busy years.

Outcomes are not printed

Rhode Island grocery shows neither outcome rate: the cohorts are too small, and the omission says nothing about zero. Any rate on neighboring pages is a floor.

Testing a Rhode Island market

With nearly all activity in Providence County, a study should say exactly which neighborhood it serves and prove the catchment: households within walking and short driving distance, the food they currently buy and where, and every competing market, chain or independent, in range. Rhode Island's small size means a larger chain's store can sit close by, so the study must show what an independent offers that the chain does not. Cost is tested against a ticket near $187,000: equipment, refrigeration, inventory and lease improvements each need a line, and inventory turns decide how much working capital is needed. Build coverage on margins realistic for perishables, spoilage included. The appraisal then values the store on its income and the lease, and the study should reconcile to it.