Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Connecticut

A very small median in Connecticut

Connecticut grocery lending is built from small loans. Grocers here took 67 SBA approvals across FY2017 to FY2026 for $27.6 million, but the median approval is only $100,000, a mere 0.28x the figure for grocery stores nationally. Half of the loans sit between $50,000 and $308,000. State by state the class stands 16 of 55, and within Connecticut 13 of 39, and the location quotient of 1.27x shows a mild tilt toward grocery relative to the national mix.

Banks and regions

Nearly all approvals are 7(a), at 63 loans, with 4 under SBA 504, and 3.0% carry a franchise flag. Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company holds the most, at 15 loans for $1.1 million, while Santander Bank, National Association holds 14 loans worth $5.6 million. KeyBank National Association has 5 loans worth $485,000 and TD Bank, National Association has 5 worth $380,000. By planning region, Capitol leads with 16 loans and South Central CT has 13, then Hartford with 8 and Western CT with 7.

Timing

Annual counts moved between 3 and 8 through FY2024, with FY2019 the quietest at 3 loans and $235,000. Dollar totals swing more than counts: FY2024 brought $6.2 million from 5 loans, whereas FY2025, the busiest year at 13 loans, delivered only $3.4 million. FY2026 closes with 7 loans and $405,000, which implies very small tickets in the latest group.

What the early loss record omits

Between FY2017 and FY2024, at least 6.4% of approvals were cancelled after approval, and the same share applies if unfunded loans count as dropped. Loan Analytics prints no charge-off rate here, because fewer than 30 grocery loans reached disbursement in the early window. The empty slot is not a zero; nothing about it supports a presumption of safety.

What the study should test

Food retail depends on trade-area households, so the study should count residents within a short drive, their income, and the supermarkets and discount chains already serving them. Sales per square foot, shrink, and the lease or purchase cost need careful treatment. A project asking for far more than the $100,000 median must explain what separates it from the typical corner grocer, such as owned real estate or refrigeration capital. The repayment test should be run on slow weeks, and the appraisal should value any building separately from inventory.