Feasibility Study Data for the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metro Area

Small tickets, heavy reliance on one bank

Detroit-Warren-Dearborn ranks 11 of 928 metro and micro areas by number of loans, with 11,143 approvals and $4.50 billion in gross dollars from FY2017 to FY2026. What marks this area is the modest ticket. A median of $140,000 is only 0.67x the nation's figure, with the central half of loans spanning $50,000 to $382,150. Franchise brands account for 10.5% of loans. Nearly all the lending is 7(a), 10,553 loans against 590 under 504, so the area is a market of working-capital and modest acquisition loans far more than of large real estate financings.

The class table is dominated by what lies outside it: 8,297 loans belong to none of the tracked asset classes. Among named classes, full-service restaurant is first at 492 loans, with limited-service restaurant at 388, liquor store at 279 and fitness center at 167. Hotel and motel has 81 loans, assisted living 32, and self storage 33. Geographically the book is anchored in Oakland County, MI at 4,141 loans and Wayne County, MI at 3,520, followed by Macomb County, MI at 2,544, Livingston County, MI at 488, St. Clair County, MI at 297 and Lapeer County, MI at 153.

The holders SBA lists

Each name below is the holder SBA currently shows against a loan, which says where paper sits today and nothing about how an institution decides. The Huntington National Bank holds 5,372 7(a) loans worth $933.0 million, a concentration that no other holder here approaches; Fifth Third Bank follows with 643, JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association with 327, Citizens Bank, National Association with 291 and ChoiceOne Bank with 240 loans worth $184.1 million. The 504 table is headed by Michigan Certified Development Corporation at 379 loans and $335.5 million, Oakland County Business Finance Corporation 113 and Great Lakes Commercial Finance 90.

Cancellations after approval reached 11.7% for FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, a floor, and 13.7% as a ceiling that treats loans still undisbursed as cancelled. Of the 4,729 loans in the funded cohort for FY2017 to FY2021, charge-offs total 5.1% to date and 2.9% at the five-year mark; both are minimums while loans stay open. Annual volume bottomed at 850 loans in FY2020 and reached 1,320 in FY2024, while dollars peaked at $575.0 million in FY2025.

What the study has to establish

For a Detroit-area project, a study must separate demand in the specific county from the metro's broad averages, and must show that the project's cost fits the lower loan scale lenders here are used to. Debt service coverage should survive these loss floors, and the appraisal must back the collateral value. The July 2023 delineation draws the area lines; a loan from a county it cannot place is excluded here and elsewhere. We offer this context to lenders and borrowers alike, with no promise of approval.