Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Tucson, AZ Metro Area

Coffee shops in the Tucson area

Coffee shops and snack bars come eighth of 39 among the classes in the Tucson, AZ area, and the area is 56 of 612 nationally for them. Over FY2017 to FY2026 the area approved 26 loans for $10.0 million. A location quotient of 1.41x shows the class bulking larger in Tucson's loans than in loans nationally, and the median loan of $333,350 is 1.39x the class's median in the country as a whole. Both ratios point the same way: coffee shops are a more common borrower here, and each project is bigger than a typical one elsewhere. A sponsor should therefore expect the lender to ask what justifies a loan above the usual size for a coffee shop, and how the site will draw trade beyond the morning peak.

Programs, brands and the range

SBA 7(a) accounts for 21 loans and SBA 504 for 5. Franchise brands attach to 61.5%. Loans from $65,000 to $452,700 form the middle half, so a small kiosk and a drive-through building can both be found here. Pima County, AZ holds all 26. No lender is named.

FY2018 and FY2019 are both recorded at 0 loans and $0, with no coffee shop approval. FY2023 reads 9 loans and $1.7 million, the busiest year on the page by count. Further years fall below the line where counts can be published. A base short of 30 loans means the page has no cancellation figure and no charge-off figure.

Testing a coffee shop or snack bar here

The first test is the site: morning traffic, parking, a drive-through lane if one is planned, and how many competing shops sit in the same trade area. A study should model daily tickets and the average sale, labour and product cost, and the share of sales in the morning peak. With 61.5% of the loans branded, any franchisor's fees, required equipment and remodel schedule must sit in the budget. Build-out cost should be compared with a typical loan of $333,350, and the debt payment shown as covered in a slow summer month. A lender will look at the lease and the owner's experience. Tucson's boundary is read from the July 2023 list, by matching each financed shop to its county.