Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area

Coffee in Tampa Bay: heavy tickets, high cancellation

A cancellation floor of 19.2% is the first thing to read in the coffee shop and snack bar record around Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater: nearly one in five FY2017 to FY2024 approvals fell away, and Loan Analytics withholds the ceiling and the write-off rate. The cell carries 95 approvals worth $51.1 million. Tampa Bay lands 22 of 612 among all areas, coffee is 10 of 39 inside Tampa Bay, with a location quotient of 1.04x that leaves the weight near the national mix.

The median is $350,000, 1.46x the national class median, and $205,500 and $627,500 mark the quartile edges. Franchised units are 50.5%, so about half the file is franchised. Loan Analytics withholds the program split. Among lenders, The Huntington National Bank holds 12 SBA 7(a) loans and $5.2 million, BayFirst National Bank 8 loans but $10.4 million, and Lake Michigan CU 6 and $1.9 million. BayFirst's average is the largest on the list. None of this is a statement about practice; it is SBA's holder data.

Counties and years

Hillsborough County, FL has 46 loans, Pinellas County, FL 31 and Pasco County, FL 18. Two years, FY2018 and FY2020, are withheld, so the series starts at 8 loans and $2.1 million in FY2017, shows 12 in FY2019, 15 loans and $4.3 million in FY2022, and ends at 12 loans and $7.1 million in FY2026.

The 2023 delineation places each Tampa Bay loan through its project county, and unplaceable counties drop out. A lender weighing a request should treat the cancellation floor as a warning: a study must show the buyer, lease and equipment are in hand. With 95 approvals in all, even a handful of cancelled deals moves the percentage, so the floor is best read as a caution rather than a precise rate.

What a Tampa Bay coffee study has to settle

Test commuter flow and daytime traffic in Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties, price equipment, build-out and any franchise fees against $350,000, and show that cups, tickets and labor repay the loan. The appraisal covers real estate in the request. Treat the 95 approvals as background and nothing more.