Assisted Living Feasibility Study in the Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metro Area

Assisted living without nursing care is unusually concentrated around Tampa Bay. The record from FY2017 to FY2026 holds 70 approvals for $69.4 million, and the area ranks 6 of 321 metro and micro areas for these homes, and the location quotient of 2.33x is far above the national share. Yet the class is only 11 of 39 among the classes here, and the median loan of $526,000 is 0.69x the national median, so Tampa Bay stands out for how many homes it finances, not for their size. The middle half runs from $184,750 to $1.3 million.

Pinellas, Hillsborough and the lenders

Pinellas County, FL accounts for 28 loans and Hillsborough County, FL for 24, the two counties with the most loans in the record. Under 7(a) there are 57 loans and under 504 there are 13. BayFirst National Bank holds 6 loans totaling $8.7 million and Celtic Bank Corporation holds 5 totaling $9.0 million, both holdings averaging well above the area's median loan of $526,000. Such holdings, as SBA records them today, say nothing about any lender's view of care homes.

Trend and what Loan Analytics withholds

Early years were modest: FY2017 brought 6 loans and $6.4 million, FY2018 the same count but only $1.8 million, then FY2019 gave 7 loans and $7.6 million, and FY2021 6 loans and $6.7 million. FY2022 had 9 loans for $10.5 million, FY2023 had 12 loans for $11.6 million, FY2025 had 9 loans for $15.5 million and FY2026 had 10 loans for $3.9 million. Loan Analytics leaves FY2020 and FY2024 blank, plus the franchise share, the ceiling form of cancellation and the rate of charge-offs, as the cohorts behind them are too small; blank never means zero. Among FY2017 to FY2024 approvals, at least 15.7% were cancelled after approval.

What a study of a Tampa Bay care home must test

The first test is whether a high location quotient means demand or saturation: licensed bed counts near the site, their occupancy and the private-pay households a new home could draw. Only homes without on-site nursing belong to this class; memory care lacks a code of its own, and homes with nursing are indexed elsewhere, so the study should state the care level on offer. Storm exposure, insurance cost and evacuation planning matter on this coast and belong in the cost and operating tests. Staffing, lease-up speed and debt service at a slow fill are the core of the coverage test, and the appraiser will value the income from licensed beds, not the building alone.