Assisted Living Feasibility Study in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area

Care homes weigh more here than nationally

In San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, assisted living without nursing care takes 2.35x the share of local SBA lending that it takes nationally, and the area is 5 of 321 for the class, with care homes placing a modest 12 of 39 in the area's own ranking. SBA approved 85 loans from FY2017 to FY2026, worth $96.4 million. Care-home borrowers here take a $905,000 median, 1.19x what care homes borrow elsewhere, and half of the loans lie in the band from $582,000 to $1.3 million. No loan carries a franchise flag, the printed share being 0.00%.

One lender holds half the book

Pinnacle Bank (CA) is listed with 42 7(a) loans worth $44.8 million, about half the record by count and the clear leader among holders. Celtic Bank Corporation holds 6 loans worth $7.7 million and Columbia Bank (OR) holds 5 worth $6.9 million. SBA names the holder as of today, which can differ from the originator, as the page's holder note explains; the table says nothing about how any bank views care homes.

Counties and programs

Contra Costa County holds 42 of the loans and Alameda County 29. SBA 7(a) accounts for 73 and SBA 504 for 12. Approvals started high, with 20 loans and $17.0 million in FY2017 and 17 loans and $20.0 million in FY2018, and then fell to 7 or 8 loans a year through FY2023. Counts for FY2019 and for FY2024 to FY2026 are suppressed, the source finding too little lending in each, so the latest trend is invisible, though it was not nil.

No loss rates

For care homes around San Francisco Bay, loss rates are absent: too few loans exist to print a cancellation rate or a charge-off rate. The page carries no loss evidence, and a lender weighing a Bay Area care home will need California and national pages for that. Unpublished is not nil.

Testing a Bay Area care home

A concentration like this tells a sponsor that others have already built homes here, so the study must show that the specific submarket still has unmet need among households that can pay privately. Land, conversion and licensing costs deserve a close test against a $905,000 median, and staffing, occupancy ramp and debt service need slow-fill cases. The study should state clearly what care the home will provide, since the page's coding note separates assisted living with nursing, which belongs on other class pages. Valuation will rest on licensed capacity and the income it produces. Counties are assigned by the July 2023 list.