Assisted Living Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

Heavy loans, above-parity concentration

Assisted living without nursing care in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad area is a concentrated, large-ticket class. The area is 11 of 321 nationally, and a location quotient of 1.53x shows care homes are well over their national share of the metro's loans, though within the area the class is 13 of 39. SBA approved 50 loans between FY2017 and FY2026 for $72.1 million, every one sitting in San Diego County.

Size of loans

At $998,900 the midpoint exceeds the national one for assisted living by 1.31x, and the typical loan runs from $684,725 to $1.9 million. The floor of that range is high: even the smallest loans in the typical band start at $684,725, so little here resembles a micro-loan. By program, 7(a) took 44 loans and 504 took 6. Franchise share is 0.00%.

The class boundary

The industry code exists only for assisted living lacking on-site nursing. No code exists for memory care, and a facility with nursing on site is counted among the nursing classes, so a project with licensed nursing staff will not be found in this record. A study should say plainly which care level the facility provides.

Holders and years

US Metro Bank is listed on 9 loans worth $16.9 million and Frontwave Credit Union on 5 worth $5.1 million, on SBA's current-holder basis. The printed years are FY2021 with 11 loans and $16.4 million, FY2023 with 6 and $9.3 million, and FY2024 with 5 and $8.1 million. The rest are hidden. On losses the page is blank: no cancellation figure, no charge-off figure, and nothing blank here should be read as nil.

What a San Diego care-home study tests

The study must test the need first: licensed beds near the site against the number of older residents who can pay privately, a point that matters because residents mostly fund their own care. It should test acquisition or build cost against the loan size, which here is close to a million dollars, plus staffing, licensing and the pace at which beds fill. A slow lease-up is the main risk, so the payment should be covered through it. The appraiser will value the income of the licensed beds, which differs from the value of the real estate, and that distinction should be in the study.