Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Jacksonville, FL Metro Area

Two of every three loans carry a brand

Brand ownership dominates the Jacksonville limited-service restaurant file: 65.0% of the 120 loans carry a franchise flag. Across FY2017 to FY2026 they total $80.4 million in gross dollars. Loans are sizeable: the $392,000 median is 1.26x the national level, and the middle loans span $250,000 to $710,500, with few very small ones. Jacksonville places 38th of 779 areas, the class is runner-up among its 39 locally, and the location quotient is 1.16x.

Loans split 98 to SBA 7(a) and 22 to SBA 504, so close to one in five finances property. Duval County supplies 69 of the loans, St. Johns County 29 and Clay County 10.

A development company leads

Florida First Capital Finance Corporation, Inc. alone reaches SBA's 504 list, with 12 loans and $11.4 million. Holdings on the 7(a) side are thin and spread out. The Huntington National Bank shows 8 loans and $3.8 million; Wells Fargo Bank National Association and Pineland Bank 6 each, at $8.4 million and $1.6 million; Bank Five Nine and Customers Bank 5 each, at $5.0 million and $1.7 million. Wells Fargo's six loans are several times the size of Pineland's six. These are the current holders and they say nothing of what any would require.

Of what SBA approved on the First Coast from FY2017 through FY2024, 11.5% or more never reached funding. Neither a Jacksonville ceiling nor a loss rate so far is printed, as SBA holds both back; a blank is not a zero. The annual series is uneven: 20 loans in FY2021, 6 in FY2023, 18 in FY2024 worth $7.2 million, and 10 in FY2026 worth $9.0 million.

Testing a Jacksonville drive-through

Because the typical borrower is a franchisee, the study sets the brand's expected sales against what the specific pad can deliver, and the answer depends on traffic along the arterial, the quality of the turn-in, and the count of competing units within a short drive. St. Johns County's growth and Duval County's older corridors are different markets, so the trade area must be drawn by hand. The 504 share raises a second question for those who own their land: what the site is worth to a different user. Cost includes the brand's build and equipment package, and debt service coverage needs royalties and advertising fees in every month. Jacksonville totals rest on matching each loan's county to the July 2023 list, so they can only be too low.