Liquor Store Feasibility Study in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metro Area

Sizing up 120 San Francisco, CA loans

Over FY2017 to FY2026, San Francisco borrowers in liquor store took 120 approvals totaling $71.2 million. A typical loan is $431,000; the middle half runs $255,925 to $780,000. Against the class nationally, San Francisco's median is 0.96x of the national median, below it.

San Francisco against the nation at 1.35x

For liquor store in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, no 7(a) or 504 count is shown, and the gap should not be read as no loans. None of the loans, 0.00%, went to franchised units. Liquor store is 9 of 39 among classes in the area, and the area is 14 of 426 among areas for it. The location quotient is 1.35x, so liquor stores weigh more heavily here than they do in the national book. By county, Alameda County, CA leads with 58 loans, then San Francisco County, CA with 25 and Contra Costa County, CA with 21.

Floors and holders for liquor store in San Francisco

By year, FY2021 tops the series with 15 loans and $8.0 million, while FY2023 trails with 7 and $3.3 million. Under 7(a), SBA lists these holders: 16 loans and $8.6 million at Bank of Hope; 15 loans and $12.2 million at Centerstone SBA Lending, Inc.; 15 loans and $12.1 million at Open Bank. Centerstone SBA Lending, Inc. holds the most dollars and Bank of Hope the most loans. SBA's file ties 16 of the loans to Bank of Hope as the current holder; nothing in it describes the bank's own conduct. The cancellation floor is 15.1%, while the ceiling is withheld, not zero. The charge-off rate is also withheld, as the disbursed cohort is small, and that is not a zero.

Testing a liquor store project in San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont

Before debt is sized, the study weighs licensing limits, neighborhood foot traffic and price pressure from larger sellers, since those set revenue. On cost, it prices out security and point-of-sale systems, fixtures and opening inventory against lease terms and contractor quotes. Earnings should be stressed at a loan of $255,925 and again at $780,000, to see at which point coverage gives way. Appraisers value inventory, the license and any real estate as separate items, and the study should follow that split. The $71.2 million total is a record of earlier approvals, says nothing about the next one, and promises no borrower a yes.

Method for San Francisco, CA's 120 loans

By project county, the area claims 120 loans. The July 2023 delineation puts Alameda County, CA inside the area, and every county is paired by name. Cancellations and charge-offs are measured on different cohorts, and each rate is printed beside its own cohort.