Grocery Store Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

What SBA's own loan files show about grocery store lending in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.

The grocery store record in San Diego

From FY2017 to FY2026, San Diego had 37 SBA-approved grocery store loans worth $39.4 million. San Diego, on grocery store loans, holds place 21 of 412 among areas. Inside San Diego, grocery store places 17 of 39. San Diego has a quotient of 0.74x, grocery store below the national share.

San Diego loan sizes and mix

Loan size in San Diego centres on $670,000, and its middle half runs between $127,200 and $1.8 million. San Diego loans sit at 1.90x of the national class median. In San Diego, borrowers draw bigger loans than nationally. San Diego counts 32 loans under SBA 7(a). San Diego counts 5 under SBA 504. San Diego finances fixed assets through 504. In San Diego, 7(a) is the broader program. San Diego's split shows its financing mix. San Diego loans show a 0.00% franchise share. San Diego loans run bigger. In San Diego, a study must prove the payment.

San Diego: lenders and counties

San Diego lists no lender. Grocery store holders in San Diego are many. San Diego borrowers open with the study itself. San Diego puts all 37 loans under San Diego County, CA.

San Diego floors, limits and yearly record

Few San Diego years print. San Diego shows 6 loans, $3.9 million, in FY2018. San Diego shows 5 loans, $6.0 million, in FY2020. Other San Diego years are withheld. Thin counts leave San Diego totals unknown. In San Diego, no blank is a zero, and San Diego treats FY2026 as complete. Floors in San Diego follow Loan Analytics' own rule. The San Diego cohort holds fewer than 30 loans. San Diego disbursements cover FY2017 to FY2021. No San Diego cancellation floor prints. No San Diego charge-off floor prints either. San Diego blanks are no zero. San Diego blanks are no clean book. Each San Diego rate is a floor. San Diego follows July 2023 boundaries. San Diego places loans by project county. San Diego drops loans lacking a placeable county.

San Diego: grocery store feasibility questions

San Diego modelling starts from the $670,000 median, against the project in San Diego. A grocery study in San Diego measures the trade area's weekly spend against store size, then asks what share of it a new store can plausibly earn. In San Diego, thin margins mean debt service coverage is tested against shrink, perishables loss and labor hours, not only against sales. We would map the grocery competitors around the San Diego site and test how a new store holds its basket against each of them. Daniel Smith, MAI, signs every San Diego grocery store study. For San Diego, demand and cost are tested. In San Diego, coverage and value are tested. San Diego borrowers are promised no approval here.

SBA grocery store loans in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

Loans approved, FY2017 to FY202637
Gross dollars approved$39.4 million
Median loan$670,000
Middle half of loans, from$127,200
Middle half of loans, to$1.8 million
SBA 7(a) loans32
SBA 504 loans5
Franchise share of loans0.00%
Rank among metro and micro areas for grocery store loans21 of 412
Rank of grocery store among the classes in this area17 of 39
Location quotient (share of loans against the national share)0.74x
Median loan against the national median for the class1.90x

Cancellation and charge-off

Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor)not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort
Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor)not reported: fewer than 30 loans in the cohort

Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.

SBA grocery store loans approved in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area, by fiscal year

0246FY2017FY2018FY2019FY2020FY2021FY2022FY2023FY2024FY2025FY2026Loans, FY2018: 6Loans, FY2020: 5
Fiscal yearLoansDollars
FY2017withheldwithheld
FY20186$3.9 million
FY2019withheldwithheld
FY20205$6.0 million
FY2021withheldwithheld
FY2022withheldwithheld
FY2023withheldwithheld
FY2024withheldwithheld
FY2025withheldwithheld
FY2026withheldwithheld

Where the loans are, by county

CountyLoans
San Diego County, CA37

Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.

Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.

A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.

Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-41740-C40.

Loan Analytics prepares the feasibility study a lender reads before it commits: for a grocery store project in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area, financed under SBA 7(a), SBA 504, USDA Business and Industry or a conventional bank loan. Tell us the project and the lender's deadline, and we reply with scope, timeline and fee.

Request Scope & Timeline

Start with the data.

Contact Us