Grocery Store Feasibility Study in Oklahoma

A Tulsa-centered class with lower-than-national weight

Oklahoma grocery lending is mid-sized in count and below the national norm in weight. SBA's FY2017 to FY2026 files list 27 grocery loans in the state totalling $15.7 million gross; Oklahoma ranks 30 of 55 for the class, grocery lands at 18 of 39 in the state's own order, and the location quotient is 0.76x. Tulsa County carries 12 of the loans, against 3 in Oklahoma County, 2 in Canadian, and single loans in Beaver, Comanche, Delaware, Garfield, Garvin, Harper and Mayes. That leaves Oklahoma City well behind Tulsa, which is the surprise in this record and a prompt to ask why.

Size and lender

The median loan of $226,300 is 0.64x the national grocery median, and half of the loans run from $125,000 to $720,500, so these are corner and neighborhood stores more than supermarkets. Program split: 24 loans in 7(a), 3 in 504, and no franchise brands at 0.00%. Arvest Bank is the one lender shown for 7(a), with 6 loans and $1.5 million. Annual volume peaked at 5 in FY2025 and bottomed at 1 in FY2020 and FY2021. For a lender, that is a small, steady niche; for a borrower, it means precedent exists, but not in bulk.

What the page does not print

Oklahoma's cancellation and charge-off rates for grocery are left out. Each cohort is below the 30-loan line, so a percentage would be a statement about one or two stores. The omission is not a zero. Rates quoted for larger cells are floors, as open loans can still go wrong.

Testing an Oklahoma grocery plan

Name the market first. In Tulsa the competition includes national chains and established independents, while a small-town store may be the only source of fresh food for miles, and the demand test differs sharply between them. Count the households, the incomes and the existing stores, and describe how far shoppers already drive. Next comes cost against a median near $226,300: equipment, coolers and shelving, inventory and the lease or the building. Margins on groceries are thin, so debt service coverage should be shown with shrink and a competitor's opening in the base case. Because a store often leans on one location, the appraisal and the lease terms matter, and the study should reconcile its sales forecast with both.