Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area

Twice the national weight for coffee shops

San Antonio-New Braunfels shows a location quotient of 2.17x for coffee shop and snack bar loans: the class is more than twice as prominent in this area's SBA lending as in the nation's. The area stands 21st of 612 for the class, and coffee shops are third among its 39 classes. The 98 approvals from FY2017 to FY2026 carry $53.3 million. Franchise flags appear on 69.4% of the loans, so a majority of borrowers are opening a branded location. Bexar County has 66 loans, Comal County 17 and Guadalupe County 6.

Loan size runs above the class norm here: a $365,200 median, 1.52x the national level, with central loans from $160,750 to $616,575. Ninety-three of the 98 loans are 7(a) and 5 are 504, a pattern typical of leased cafe and drive-through buildouts.

Small holdings, spread widely

No holder here has more than a handful of loans. The Huntington National Bank has 8 worth $5.5 million. United Community Bank (SC), Broadway National Bank and Stearns Bank National Association have 6 each, worth $2.9 million, $2.0 million and $1.5 million, and Security State Bank and Trust has 5 worth $2.6 million. Huntington's loans are the largest on average. SBA's tables record present holders. A borrower cannot infer a lender's practices from them.

At least 17.7% of San Antonio approvals dated FY2017 to FY2024 were cancelled. Four more thinly supported items are not released for this cell: a ceiling, a charge-off rate, and the 2019 and 2020 loans with their dollars. An empty cell is not a zero. Among the years shown, approvals grew from 5 in FY2017 to 24 in FY2026, worth $13.3 million.

Questions a San Antonio coffee study must answer

A franchise model hands over a pro forma, and the study replaces it with local evidence: morning commuter counts at the site, the number of competing cafes and drive-through lanes, and the ease of entering and leaving the lot at peak. Growth along the New Braunfels corridor is a different market from the central city, so the trade area has to be chosen with care. Revenue is made of many small tickets, so the study should show the transactions per hour that the lease and payroll require. Equipment and buildout are the large costs, and debt service coverage should survive a slow first year. Counts for Bexar and Comal counties lean on each loan's county turning up on the July 2023 list.