Quick Service Restaurant Feasibility Study in the San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX Metro Area

San Antonio quick-service: franchise-heavy, one county

Franchised units account for 69.9% of the 123 limited-service restaurant loans around San Antonio-New Braunfels, so brand systems define this market. Bexar County, TX carries 104 loans and Guadalupe County, TX 12. The cell holds $64.2 million for FY2017 to FY2026, ranks 36 of 779 among areas for the class, and has the class second, 2 of 39, among local classes. At 1.05x the location quotient sits just above the national mix.

The median is $397,000, 1.28x the national class median, and quartile edges at $241,000 and $631,600. SBA 7(a) carried 116 loans and SBA 504 carried 7. Because the brands set building and equipment standards, a study must price the franchisor's requirements, not a generic build. Bexar County's 104 loans dwarf Guadalupe County's 12, so a site outside Bexar should explain what traffic it will draw. Cancellation of FY2017 to FY2024 approvals is 11.8% at both the floor and the ceiling.

Lenders and losses

The Huntington National Bank holds 15 SBA 7(a) loans and $4.1 million. Stearns Bank National Association holds 9, Wallis Bank 8 loans and $5.2 million, Gulf Coast Bank and Trust Company 7 loans and $7.6 million, and Prosperity Bank 7 and $2.7 million. No SBA 504 lender here is sizable enough for naming. Gulf Coast's larger average is worth noting. Of the 50 loans disbursed in FY2017 to FY2021, 14.0% of them show as charge-offs so far (a minimum), and SBA keeps the five-year rate back.

Approvals went from 15 loans and $4.7 million in FY2017 to 8 in FY2020, then 17 loans and $10.1 million in FY2023 and 15 loans in each of FY2025 and FY2026 ($7.5 million in the latter). San Antonio's loans are assigned by project county under the 2023 delineation.

Testing a San Antonio quick-service project

The study begins with Bexar County traffic counts, sightlines and competing brands, then prices the building against $397,000, and test the franchise agreement's fees and remodel duties. Daily transactions must cover debt service. With a charge-off floor of 14.0% on a small cohort, the study should show its downside case. At Loan Analytics, a San Antonio study begins here; Daniel Smith, MAI, signs it, though the 123 loans above forecast nothing new.