Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Metro Area

Where coffee sits in Sacramento lending

Order every metro and micro area by its coffee shop and snack bar loans and Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom lands at 28 of 612, on 76 loans and $33.9 million approved from FY2017 to FY2026. Coffee takes ninth place, 9 of 39, among the classes financed locally, and its location quotient of 1.08x is barely above parity with the national mix. That places coffee mid-table in Sacramento, and a study should neither oversell nor dismiss it.

The $300,000 median coffee loan here compares at 1.25x with the national figure, and the middle half of loans spans $149,750 up to $446,250. Franchise flags sit on 67.1% of loans, so most loans carry a franchise flag. Loan Analytics withholds the split into SBA 7(a) and SBA 504 loans because too few loans back it, so no count is printed. Drive-through kiosks and seated cafes share a class code, which leaves the shop format for a study to define.

Lenders and counties

Among SBA 7(a) holders, Newtek Bank, National Association heads the table at 9 loans and $2.1 million. The Huntington National Bank carries 7 loans worth $1.5 million, U.S. Bank, National Association 6 loans with $401,500, while Plumas Bank and United Business Bank each hold 5 loans, worth $4.6 million and $2.8 million. Notice how far the average ticket differs: Plumas Bank's 5 loans carry more dollars than Newtek's 9. Each name is only the holder SBA lists, and it tells us nothing about how that bank treats applicants. County counts run Sacramento County, CA 47, Placer County, CA 14, Yolo County, CA 8 and El Dorado County, CA 7.

Yearly approvals wander. FY2017 recorded 11 loans and $5.4 million; FY2020, 7 loans and $3.6 million; FY2021, 6 loans and $2.4 million; FY2022, only 5 loans yet $5.3 million. Then FY2023 climbed to 10 loans and $6.0 million, FY2024 and FY2025 each landed on 8 loans and $2.6 million, and FY2026 reached 13 loans and $3.7 million. Two early years carry no count, because Loan Analytics withholds thin ones. No cancellation floor or charge-off floor is printed for Sacramento coffee either, which leaves the page without a loss measure, and a blank there must never be taken for zero losses. A loan reaches the Sacramento metro by way of its project county; one that the July 2023 delineation cannot place is simply absent.

Testing a Sacramento coffee concept

A coffee study in this metro should count morning commuter traffic through Sacramento County and the Placer County suburbs, then map the competing cafes within walking and driving range. Build-out cost must be set against the $300,000 median, and the model must show sales and margin covering debt service after royalties if a brand is involved. The appraisal values a going business plus its lease rights. Nothing in the record above amounts to a promise of approval.