Restaurant Feasibility Study in the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Metro Area
What SBA's own loan files show about full-service restaurant lending in the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Metro Area, and what a feasibility study for a project there has to test.
The $350,000 median in Sacramento, CA
Over FY2017 to FY2026, Sacramento applicants in full-service restaurant drew 244 approvals summing to $145.9 million. Loans center near $350,000, and the middle half sit between $104,425 and $673,750. Against the class nationally, Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom's median is 1.27x of the national median, above it.
Rank 27 of 821: mix and counties in Sacramento
7(a) outweighs the other program in Sacramento, CA, 217 7(a) loans to 27 504 loans. 10.2% of Sacramento loans went to franchised units. The class holds 1 of 39 among Sacramento industries, and Sacramento, CA ranks 27 of 821 among the areas for this class. A location quotient of 0.90x leaves full-service restaurant lighter in Sacramento than nationwide. The busiest counties: Sacramento County, CA at 154 loans, Placer County, CA at 46, El Dorado County, CA at 24.
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom lenders, years and the $145.9 million file
The busiest shown year was FY2018, 32 loans and $7.3 million; the quietest was FY2022, 10 loans and $7.8 million. In Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, 7(a) loans sit mostly with 34 loans and $5.3 million at U.S. Bank, National Association; 22 loans and $16.5 million at Plumas Bank; 15 loans and $4.8 million at Banner Bank. U.S. Bank, National Association holds the most loans, while Plumas Bank holds the most dollars, a split a Sacramento borrower should note. The 34 loans at U.S. Bank, National Association appear because SBA names it holder; the $5.3 million tells nothing of lending standards. Under 504 for full-service restaurant, the file shows 7 loans and $8.9 million at Greater Sacramento Certified Development Corporation and 6 loans and $7.0 million at The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation. The Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom cancellation floor is 10.7%, with the ceiling kept back by Loan Analytics; that is not a zero. 7.1% or more of 113 disbursed Sacramento loans are charged off across Sacramento, and Loan Analytics holds back the within-five-years rate.
What a Sacramento, CA study must test at $350,000
A Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom study starts with lunch and dinner traffic, the pull of the neighborhood after dark and household dining spend; the 244-loan file cannot stand in for them. The Sacramento build or purchase has to absorb buildout, opening inventory and kitchen and bar equipment, and Sacramento figures should replace national rules of thumb. Stress Sacramento earnings with a $104,425 loan and a $673,750 loan, then check where coverage weakens. Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom appraisers will value the operating business, the lease and the kitchen equipment one at a time, so the Sacramento study should do the same. The $145.9 million Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom record is a yardstick, not a forecast here in Sacramento, and promises no Sacramento applicant approval.
Method for Sacramento, CA's 244 loans
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom gets its 244 loans through each project's county. Matching Sacramento County, CA and its neighbors to Sacramento, CA uses names under the July 2023 delineation. Sacramento cancellation covers FY2017 to FY2024 approvals around Sacramento; charge-offs cover FY2017 to FY2021 disbursements.
SBA full-service restaurant loans in the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Metro Area
| Loans approved, FY2017 to FY2026 | 244 |
|---|---|
| Gross dollars approved | $145.9 million |
| Median loan | $350,000 |
| Middle half of loans, from | $104,425 |
| Middle half of loans, to | $673,750 |
| SBA 7(a) loans | 217 |
| SBA 504 loans | 27 |
| Franchise share of loans | 10.2% |
| Rank among metro and micro areas for full-service restaurant loans | 27 of 821 |
| Rank of full-service restaurant among the classes in this area | 1 of 39 |
| Location quotient (share of loans against the national share) | 0.90x |
| Median loan against the national median for the class | 1.27x |
Cancellation and charge-off
| Cancelled after approval, FY2017 to FY2024 approvals (a floor) | 10.7% |
|---|---|
| The same, counting loans still undisbursed as cancelled (a ceiling) | withheld |
| Charged off to date, FY2017 to FY2021 disbursed loans (a floor) | 7.1% |
| Charged off within five years of approval | withheld |
| Loans in that cohort | 113 |
Both rates are floors. SBA withholds the status of open loans, so a loan counts as charged off only once SBA reports it; a rate needs at least 30 loans in its cohort and is otherwise not reported.
SBA full-service restaurant loans approved in the Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA Metro Area, by fiscal year
| Fiscal year | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| FY2017 | 27 | $14.6 million |
| FY2018 | 32 | $7.3 million |
| FY2019 | 26 | $14.1 million |
| FY2020 | 20 | $12.0 million |
| FY2021 | 22 | $13.6 million |
| FY2022 | 10 | $7.8 million |
| FY2023 | 28 | $19.3 million |
| FY2024 | 32 | $20.1 million |
| FY2025 | 30 | $27.3 million |
| FY2026 | 17 | $9.9 million |
Most active SBA lenders
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| Greater Sacramento Certified Development Corporation | 7 | $8.9 million |
| The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation | 6 | $7.0 million |
| California Statewide Certified Development Corporation | 5 | $3.7 million |
| Lender | Loans | Dollars |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Bank, National Association | 34 | $5.3 million |
| Plumas Bank | 22 | $16.5 million |
| Banner Bank | 15 | $4.8 million |
| BMO Bank National Association | 10 | $4.6 million |
| Bank of America, National Association | 10 | $4.2 million |
Lenders with 5 or more loans here; a lender with fewer is not listed, and loans SBA or a receiver holds are counted but never listed as a lender.
Where the loans are, by county
| County | Loans |
|---|---|
| Sacramento County, CA | 154 |
| Placer County, CA | 46 |
| El Dorado County, CA | 24 |
| Yolo County, CA | 20 |
Counties with 5 or more loans; smaller ones are not listed.
Metro is the CBSA (metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area) of the loan's project county, July 2023 delineation (OMB Bulletin 23-01). The county is matched by name (manifests/ld2/county-cbsa-map.csv); a loan whose county cannot be placed in a 2023 CBSA is left out of every metro.
A value marked withheld rests on fewer than 5 loans, or is withheld so that such a figure cannot be derived from other published figures.
Source: U.S. Small Business Administration, 7(a) and 504 loan-level FOIA files (data.sba.gov), as of 2026-09-30; areas from the U.S. Census Bureau CBSA delineation, July 2023 (OMB Bulletin 23-01); Loan Analytics metro cell MA-40900-C34.
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