Liquor Store Feasibility Study in the San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA Metro Area

A single-county liquor record

San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad sits at 16 of 426 nationally for liquor store lending, yet liquor is only tenth, 10 of 39, once the other classes financed here are counted, and a location quotient of 0.83x puts retailers below their national share. SBA approved 67 loans and $40.6 million over FY2017 to FY2026, every one in San Diego County, CA. The median loan is $461,000, level with the national median at 1.02x, and the middle half of the book stretches from $150,000 to $784,500.

Program use splits 62 on SBA 7(a) and 5 on SBA 504, which tells us that working capital, inventory and the purchase of a going store matter far more than real estate loans. The franchise share is 0.00%; every store in the file is independent. State licensing is the gatekeeper in this trade, and the record says nothing about license values, so a study has to document the license separately.

Holders

Most 7(a) loans, 9, sit under U.S. Bank, National Association, though they total just $3.3 million, a small average. Enterprise Bank & Trust shows 8 loans and $6.8 million; Neighborhood National Bank (CA) shows 6 and $2.9 million; Fifth Third Bank shows 6 and $830,000. Dollars per loan thus differ sharply from holder to holder. SBA lists these holders and nothing here evaluates any of them.

At least 9.3% of approvals dated FY2017 to FY2024 were cancelled before the loan ran its course, which is a floor. San Diego's ceiling and charge-off rate stay unpublished on a thin cohort, and nobody should call them zero. Annual approvals: FY2017 5 loans and $1.3 million, FY2018 6 and $3.5 million, FY2019 13 and $6.7 million, FY2020 11 and $2.8 million, FY2021 8 and $8.4 million, FY2022 5 and $5.5 million, FY2025 8 and $4.4 million, FY2026 5 and $3.1 million. FY2023 and FY2024 are withheld. County placement follows the July 2023 delineation, and an unplaceable county drops out.

San Diego liquor retail: the checklist

Neighborhood density and income, parking, visibility and the mix of spirits, wine, beer and convenience items need testing, with lease and inventory set against the $461,000 median. Gross margin must carry debt service coverage after licence and compliance costs. Business and any real estate are valued separately. Loan Analytics issues the study over the signature of Daniel Smith, MAI, and promises no approval.