Hotel Feasibility Study in the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area

Sizing up 85 Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler loans

Across FY2017 to FY2026, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler businesses in hotel and motel drew 85 approvals worth $233.8 million. Loans center near $2.8 million, and the middle half land between $1.5 million and $4.1 million. At 1.30x of the national median for hotel and motel, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler sits above the national figure.

Where Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler stands, 11 of 39 in class

In Phoenix the program mix reads 56 for 7(a) against 29 for 504, with 7(a) ahead. Branded units account for 64.7% of Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler loans in this class. Across the country Phoenix stands 15 of 807 for hotel and motel loans, while inside Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler the class is 11 of 39 among classes. The location quotient is 0.47x, so the class is lighter in Phoenix than nationally. The file sits in Maricopa County, AZ, with 72 loans, and Pinal County, AZ, with 13.

Phoenix lenders, years and the $233.8 million record

The busiest printed year was FY2018, 15 loans and $42.1 million; the quietest was FY2026, 5 loans and $12.2 million. A missing Phoenix year is a year Loan Analytics withholds for hotel and motel under its small-count rule, and never an absence of lending. In Phoenix, AZ, 7(a) loans sit mostly with Poppy Bank with 15 loans for $42.8 million; Bank of Hope with 7 loans for $15.2 million; Summit State Bank with 5 loans for $19.9 million. Treat Poppy Bank's $42.8 million as a ledger of holdings around Phoenix, AZ, not a profile of how Poppy Bank lends. On the 504 side the holders are The Mortgage Capital Development Corporation (15 loans, $48.2 million) and Arizona Capital Source (8 loans, $33.5 million). The Phoenix, AZ cancellation floor stands at 11.9%, and Loan Analytics holds its ceiling back (a blank, not a zero). Phoenix, AZ keeps its charge-off rate back: the 85 loans leave too few disbursed ones (median $2.8 million) in the cohort around Phoenix, AZ, and that is not a zero.

The Phoenix study: demand, cost, coverage, appraisal at $4.1 million

Revenue around Phoenix, AZ rests on room rates, the mix of business and leisure guests and the supply of rooms already in the market, built from the ground up, not from 85 past loans. On cost, the Phoenix study prices a reserve for the ramp-up, construction or renovation and a brand's property requirements against local lease terms and contractors. Stress earnings with a $1.5 million loan and a $4.1 million loan, then check where coverage weakens. Appraisers will value the real estate, furniture and fixtures and the franchise flag one at a time, so the study should do the same. A $233.8 million record cannot approve a Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler project and should not be read as a promise.

What the Phoenix figures cannot say about hotel and motel

Placement of 85 Phoenix, AZ loans runs on the project county. Maricopa County, AZ and the other counties of Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler are paired by name to the July 2023 delineation. In Phoenix, the 85 hotel and motel loans share one code, so the figures cannot say which are limited-service and which full-service. Phoenix cancellation covers FY2017 to FY2024 approvals across Phoenix, AZ; charge-offs cover FY2017 to FY2021 disbursements.