Grocery Store Feasibility Study in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area

Inland Empire grocery: larger loans, lighter share

Grocery lending in the Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area is somewhat underweight, with a location quotient of 0.81x and a class rank of 14 of 39. The metro itself lands 16 of 412 for grocery loans. What the area has instead is size: the 50 loans, worth $46.8 million between FY2017 and FY2026, carry a median of $625,000, which is 1.78x the national median for the class. Grocery borrowers here take notably larger loans than grocery borrowers do across the nation, even as the class takes a lighter share of the metro's lending.

Programs, banks and counties

The middle half spans $302,500 to $1.2 million. Program counts read 45 and 5, with 7(a) first and 504 second, with franchise units absent from the record (0.00%). Commonwealth Business Bank holds 9 7(a) loans worth $7.4 million, while Hanmi Bank holds 6 worth $14.1 million, so its average is far higher. SBA's holder file is the source. San Bernardino County has 28 of the loans and Riverside County 22.

Printed years: 5 loans in FY2017 ($3.2 million), 8 in FY2019 ($3.3 million), 7 in FY2020 ($5.9 million), 8 in FY2021 ($9.5 million) and 8 in FY2022 ($8.2 million). FY2018 and FY2023 to FY2026 are withheld, so recent activity cannot be described. Cancellations removed 13.3% of the FY2017 to FY2024 cohort at the least, and treating undisbursed loans as cancelled lands on 13.3% too. The charge-off rate is withheld. Each loan counts for the metro through its project county.

Inland Empire grocery: what the plan owes a lender

A store plan here has to show the store's trade area with competitors by format, the weekly sales needed from the floor area, and the cost of refrigeration, fit-out and inventory, all set against a median near $625,000. If the project buys land or a building, the property should be tested apart from the grocery operation. The study should prove debt service coverage in a slow first year and explain how supply, labor and delivery costs enter the model, with the low-margin character of the business in view: a small slip in sales or shrink can matter more than in a high-margin class, so the downside case should be shown plainly, not buried in a footnote. An appraiser will test the sales forecast as a going concern. Nothing in this record promises approval.