Coffee Shop Feasibility Study in the Columbus, OH Metro Area

A coffee market with one dominant bank

More than half of the 100 coffee shop and snack bar loans around Columbus, OH sit with one institution: The Huntington National Bank holds 54 SBA 7(a) loans and $7.6 million, while KeyBank National Association holds 6 loans and $2.0 million. The program split is withheld by Loan Analytics, and no SBA 504 lender is named. The Columbus cell is small, $24.0 million in total for FY2017 to FY2026, and it ranks 19 of 612 among all areas, with coffee 7 of 39 locally. A location quotient of 1.06x leaves local weight near the national mix. Franchised units are 53.0%.

The ticket is light. The median is $123,200, only 0.51x the national class median, with $50,000 and $341,250 as the quartile edges. Small tickets point to equipment and leasehold work, though a study should confirm that instead of assuming it. Cancellation reaches 20.5% or more for approvals made in FY2017 through FY2024, matched by an equal 20.5% at the ceiling, so loans still waiting to disburse change nothing. The charge-off rate is withheld for Columbus on the small-count rule, so no charge-off number appears here.

Counties and years

Franklin County, OH carries 71 loans, Delaware County, OH 15 and Fairfield County, OH 7. Yearly counts swing widely: 6 loans and $611,100 in FY2017, 5 in FY2018, 18 loans and $2.4 million in FY2020, 5 and $749,300 in FY2022, 18 loans and $4.1 million in FY2024, 16 in FY2025 and 6 loans and $1.8 million in FY2026. A series that jumpy means a lender should ask what drove each spike.

Two cautions apply. First, entries for lenders are SBA's holder data and imply nothing about how Huntington or KeyBank approach coffee shops. Second, the Columbus totals leave out any loan whose county the 2023 delineation cannot place.

What a Columbus coffee study has to settle

The study should locate morning commuter flow and daytime traffic in Franklin and Delaware Counties, cost equipment and build-out against $123,200, and explain any franchise fees if the unit is branded. Because so many approvals never closed, it should line up the lease, the permits and the owner's cash first. Treat the 100 approvals as background and nothing more. The study should also compare the $123,200 median with the $341,250 upper quartile edge, since a request at the top of the middle half is nearly three times the median and needs a stronger coverage case.